UK Economics Update

Rates cut to 5.00%, but BoE in no rush to cut again

The Bank of England kick-started a loosening cycle today by cutting interest rates from 5.25% to 5.00%, but the accompanying guidance and forecasts suggest it will proceed cautiously. Accordingly, we...

1st August 2024 · 3 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Czech Interest Rate Announcement (Aug.)

Czech National Bank Governor Michl sounded fairly cautious in his guidance about the future course of the easing cycle in the post-meeting press conference today. But the post-meeting statement struck...

1st August 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

Bank of England Policy Announcement (1st Aug. 2024)

1st August 2024 · 2 mins read

RBI Watch

Policy loosening to begin by year-end

The upside inflation surprise in June means it is all but guaranteed that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will keep the repo rate on hold at 6.50% at the conclusion of its MPC meeting on Thursday 8th...

1st August 2024 · 6 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Manufacturing PMIs (Jul.)

The manufacturing PMIs for July suggest that industrial sectors lost a bit of momentum in Turkey and Russia at the start of Q3, although demand conditions still appear very strong in Russia. In both...

1st August 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil Interest Rate Announcement (Jul. 2024)

Rising inflation, a worsening fiscal position and a slump in the real prompted Brazil’s central bank to leave the Selic rate at 10.50% today and strike a more hawkish tone in the accompanying...

31st July 2024 · 2 mins read

US Economics Update

Fed lays the groundwork for September rate cut

There was no surprise rate cut from the Fed today, with the fed funds target range left unchanged at between 5.25% and 5.50%, but the changes in the accompanying statement – which included a shift...

31st July 2024 · 2 mins read

US Rapid Response

Fed Policy Announcement (July)

There was no surprise rate cut from the Fed today, with the fed funds target range left unchanged at between 5.25% and 5.50%, but the changes in the accompanying statement – which included a shift...

31st July 2024 · 2 mins read

Africa Chart Pack

Africa Chart Pack (Jul. 2024)

GDP growth is likely to pick up over the coming quarters as inflation falls back in most SSA economies and monetary easing cycles broaden out. The external environment will remain challenging...

31st July 2024 · 0 mins read

Global Markets Focus

EZ spreads on different paths after French election

We have revised down our forecasts for government bond spreads in Spain and Portugal, but we continue to think that those in France, as well as in Italy and Belgium, are more likely to rise than fall.

31st July 2024 · 14 mins read

Africa Economics Update

Weak demand holding back S. Africa’s economy

The fading drag from load-shedding was widely expected to allow a recovery in South Africa’s economy this year, but this hasn’t materialised. We think that weak demand is to blame, itself a symptom of...

31st July 2024 · 4 mins read

UK Markets Outlook

Upside risks to interest rates have increased

We still think that a fading in services inflation and below-target CPI inflation will prompt the Bank of England to cut interest rates from 5.25% now to 3.00% by the end of 2025, rather than to 4.00%...

31st July 2024 · 10 mins read

Japan Economics Update

Bank of Japan will hike rates yet again in October

The Bank of Japan outlined a plan for reducing its bond purchases and hiked its policy rate by 20bp today. We think it will follow up with another 20bp hike at its October meeting.

31st July 2024 · 3 mins read

FX Markets Update

Inflation a bigger deal than carry trade for AUD & NZD

We think the yen’s rally will continue, but suspect that won’t stop the Australian and New Zealand dollars – alleged victims of the carry trade’s unwind – from making some ground over the next year or...

31st July 2024 · 4 mins read

RBA Watch

RBA to stay put as narrow path remains viable

The Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to leave policy settings unchanged when it meets next week. Although there has been little progress on disinflation in recent months, the Board is likely to pin...

31st July 2024 · 7 mins read