Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook ANZ Outlook: RBA and RBNZ to walk different paths Although their recent performance leaves much to be desired, we believe that both Antipodean economies are on the cusp of a cyclical upswing. But while the RBNZ has ample room to support the recovery... 12th December 2024 · 20 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss National Bank Policy Meeting (Dec. 2024) This morning’s 50bp rate cut by the SNB, which brought the policy rate to 0.5%, came as a surprise to most economists though it was balanced by a revised policy statement which implies that... 12th December 2024 · 2 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Bank of Japan will lift rates to 1.25% by mid-2026 The outcome of the Bank’s upcoming meeting is highly uncertain but we still think that a 25bp rate hike is more likely than not. And with the yen set to remain weaker for longer and wage growth set to... 12th December 2024 · 8 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.) Brazil’s central bank stepped up the pace of tightening with a larger-than-expected 100bp hike, to 12.25%, to the Selic rate and made clear that there will be at least two more 100bp increases, to 14... 11th December 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Consumer Prices (Nov.) The renewed acceleration in Russian inflation to 8.9% y/y in November, and likelihood of further increases in the coming months, argue strongly in favour of another large interest rate hike from the... 11th December 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank to revert to 25bp cuts Although the Bank of Canada cut interest rates by another 50bp today, its communications were more hawkish than might have been expected, with the Bank no longer indicating that further cuts are... 11th December 2024 · 3 mins read
US Fed Watch Fed to continue with gradual policy normalisation We expect the Fed to cut its policy rate by an additional 25bp at next week’s FOMC meeting, to between 4.25% and 4.50%, and to continue projecting that the fed funds rate will eventually end up close... 11th December 2024 · 9 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Bank of Canada Policy Announcement (Dec. 2024) Although the Bank of Canada cut interest rates by another 50bp today, the accompanying communications were more hawkish than might have been expected, with the Bank no longer indicating that further... 11th December 2024 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Growth to strengthen as Gulf opens up the oil taps GDP growth in the Middle East and North Africa will accelerate in 2025 on the back of higher oil production in the Gulf. The UAE will be the Gulf’s top performing economy and, elsewhere, we expect... 11th December 2024 · 22 mins read
Canada Economics Update How far will mortgage interest cost inflation fall? While mortgage interest cost (MIC) inflation has historically turned negative during, or after, loosening cycles, we expect it to remain positive this time and rebound from 2026. This is because, in... 10th December 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Tracking the MPC’s thinking with our Bank of England Caseometer Our new Bank of England Caseometer helps track whether the Bank is becoming more inclined to cut interest rates faster and further or slower and not as far. Our forecast is that rates will continue to... 10th December 2024 · 4 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (Nov. 2024) The further rise in Brazil’s inflation rate, to 4.9% y/y, in November alongside the weakness in the real and strong economic growth mean that Copom is nailed on to step up the pace of monetary... 10th December 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economic Outlook Overseas slowdown won’t derail UK economy Despite the deterioration in the global outlook, we remain optimistic that UK GDP growth will just about beat the consensus forecast over the next couple of years, as lower inflation and bigger falls... 10th December 2024 · 18 mins read
India Economic Outlook India Outlook: A tougher year ahead After a stellar run, India’s economy has entered a softer patch that will continue for a few more quarters. We think that will portend an underperformance in local equities relative to other major... 10th December 2024 · 16 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Nov. 2024) Egypt’s headline inflation rate slowed from 26.5% y/y in October to 25.5% y/y in November and, with falls in the pound starting to fall out of the annual price comparison and global food and energy... 10th December 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA will only cut interest rates in May The RBA sounded more dovish today and it’s looking increasingly likely that it will lower interest rates sooner rather than later. While a downside surprise in Q4 inflation could trigger a February... 10th December 2024 · 3 mins read
