India Rapid Response

India’s government appoints new RBI governor

India’s government has just appointed Revenue Secretary Sanjay Malhotra as the new governor of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). He will replace the Shaktikanta Das following six years at the helm. The...

9th December 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico Consumer Prices (Nov. 2024)

The fall in Mexico’s headline inflation rate, to 4.6% y/y in November, combined with the relative resilience in the peso since the US election means that Banxico is likely to press ahead with another...

9th December 2024 · 2 mins read

China Rapid Response

China Politburo Meeting (Dec. 24)

The Politburo has just concluded its December meeting, which focuses foremost on economic affairs. After 14 years of monetary policy being officially characterised as “prudent”, the meeting readout...

9th December 2024 · 3 mins read

Canada Economics Weekly

Is this a ‘vibecovery’?

Recent Bank of Canada communications have been keenly attuned to the downside risks to inflation and economic activity, concerns which seemed justified after last week’s disappointing GDP report...

6th December 2024 · 4 mins read

US Economics Weekly

Inflation the last piece of the puzzle for the Fed

The data releases this week provided some support for our view that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25bp at its next meeting, rather than pause, although next week's price data will be the deciding...

6th December 2024 · 4 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Romania election drama, rate cuts delayed across EE

The decision by Romania’s constitutional court to annul the first round of the presidential election today after suggestions of Russian interference has been followed by a positive reaction in Romania...

6th December 2024 · 5 mins read

Europe Chart Pack

Europe Chart Pack (Dec. 2024)

GDP growth picked up in Q3 but timelier data suggest that it has slowed in Q4. We expect growth to remain sluggish next year regardless of whether President Trump raises tariffs on imports from Europe...

6th December 2024 · 1 min read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Brazil overheating, Mexico’s minimum wage, Bonilla quits

Data out of Brazil this week suggest that the strength of domestic demand is causing the trade surplus to erode, which goes some way in explaining the real's poor performance. But the more important...

6th December 2024 · 7 mins read

India Economics Weekly

Rupee’s decline won’t prevent eventual rate cuts

On the face of it, the fall in the rupee to record lows poses a dilemma for the Reserve Bank’s MPC, which earlier today voted to keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.50%. But the bigger picture is that...

6th December 2024 · 4 mins read

India Economics Update

RBI will begin cutting the repo rate in April

The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) decision to keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.50% today highlights its unease at the current rate of headline inflation. Admittedly, the lowering of the cash...

6th December 2024 · 2 mins read

Japan Economics Weekly

Japan: December rate hike still looking more likely than not

Conflicting messages by the Bank of Japan have once again left the outcome of the Bank's December meeting wide open, but on balance we're sticking to our forecast of another rate hike in a couple of...

6th December 2024 · 6 mins read

India Rapid Response

Reserve Bank of India Policy Announcement (Dec.)

6th December 2024 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Despite sluggish activity, RBA will only cut in May

With Australian Q3 GDP data underperforming expectations, markets now think the RBA could begin its easing cycle as soon as April. To be sure, it is certainly the case that private demand showed few...

6th December 2024 · 5 mins read

Europe Economics Update

SNB to cut by 25bp and state further cuts to come

In contrast to market pricing, we think that the SNB will be cautious and cut its policy rate by just 25bps, to 0.75%, next week as the Bank sticks to a gradual approach to loosening monetary policy...

5th December 2024 · 5 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Syria latest, Saudi-US security pact, Tunisia central bank

The advance by Syrian rebels, which has taken President Assad’s forces by surprise, is unlikely to have significant macro implications, but it has shone the light on how geopolitical alliances in the...

5th December 2024 · 8 mins read