Europe Economics Update Strong franc opens door to FX purchases and rate cuts Recent safe haven flows into the franc may have prompted limited FX interventions by the SNB. But we think that the policy rate will remain its main policy tool, even for dampening the franc’s... 8th August 2024 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly PBOC to remain timid despite renminbi turnaround The recent batch of weaker-than-expected US data and resulting global market fallout hasn’t significantly altered China’s economic outlook. While US recession risks have risen somewhat, a soft landing... 8th August 2024 · 7 mins read
Event Asia Drop-In: The timing of Asian rate cuts and the impact of global markets volatility 1723620600 Even as most EM central banks outside of Asia started lowering interest rates a year ago, those within the region have kept their powder dry. That could be about to change.
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Jul. 2024) The rise in Mexico’s headline inflation rate, to 5.6% y/y in July, alongside the weakness in the peso means that Banxico’s interest rate decision later today will be a very close call between a cut... 8th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Market optimism for RBA rate cuts seems misplaced We're sending this Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly one day earlier than usual because our Singapore office is closed on Friday for National Day. Financial markets have largely shrugged off... 8th August 2024 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Jul. 2024) Egypt’s headline inflation slowed from 27.5% y/y in June to 25.7% y/y in July, its lowest rate since December 2022. And this came in spite of recent hikes to the prices of baladi bread and fuel. We... 8th August 2024 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update RBI to ease policy by year-end The recent market turmoil didn’t move the needle for the MPC today: it continued to strike a hawkish tone as the majority of members voted to keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.50%. But with inflation... 8th August 2024 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Bank of Japan will still press ahead with another hike We're sending this Japan Economics Weekly one day earlier than usual because our Singapore office is closed on Friday for National Day. Financial markets have calmed following the turmoil earlier this... 8th August 2024 · 4 mins read
India Rapid Response RBI Policy Announcement (Aug. 2024) The recent market turmoil didn’t move the needle for the MPC today: it continued to strike a hawkish tone as the majority of members voted to keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.50%. But with inflation... 8th August 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Aug. 2024) At its last policy meeting, the Bank of England still sounded a long way from being assured that inflation and wage growth will continue to ease. As a result, we doubt the recent moves in global... 7th August 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus ECB rate cuts will do little to boost GDP We suspect that the boost to euro-zone economic growth from interest rate cuts over the next year or two will be quite small. The ECB is likely to lower its policy rates only gradually and leave them... 7th August 2024 · 10 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Interest Rate Announcement (Aug.) 7th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ to kickstart its easing cycle next week We are in the minority of forecasters who expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to hand down a 25bp rate cut at its meeting next week. Moreover, with excess capacity in the economy rising rapidly, we... 7th August 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Update Assessing the implications of the market turmoil for the UK Although the UK has clearly been caught up in the recent turmoil in global financial markets, we do not think a double-dip recession is on the cards. Nonetheless, the disorderly market reaction, if... 6th August 2024 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Will the BCB hike rates? The minutes to last week’s central bank meeting in Brazil raised the possibility that policymakers will respond to the worsening inflation outlook by hiking interest rates. And despite the sharp shift... 6th August 2024 · 5 mins read
