UK Economics Weekly Will weak activity prompt the BoE to cut rates faster? While the rebound in CPI inflation in October strengthens the case for caution at the Bank of England, the worrying news on activity recently may mean some Monetary Policy Committee members reconsider... 22nd November 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Focus What will US protectionism mean for the euro-zone? Our base case is that protectionist policies from the US next year will have only a small economic impact on Europe, but the fallout will vary between countries and there are risks of greater damage... 22nd November 2024 · 20 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Nov. 2024) The larger-than-expected fall in Mexican inflation in the first half of November, to 4.6% y/y, alongside easing core price pressures and the relative resilience in the peso mean that Banxico is likely... 22nd November 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global Flash PMIs (Nov. 2024) At face value, the fall in the composite PMI from 51.8 in October to 49.9 in November suggests that real GDP growth is contracting in the middle of Q4, following a muted expansion of 0.1% q/q in Q3... 22nd November 2024 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Upcoming Shunto will result in bigger pay hikes The stars are aligning for our long-held view that the Bank of Japan will hike rates again by year-end. And with a recent survey of Japanese firms pointing to even bigger pay hikes in next year's... 22nd November 2024 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Stillborn student cap adds to inflationary pressure The government's planned caps on foreign students won't see the light of the day because the Senate won't approve them. While foreign student commencement will still fall over the coming year, the... 22nd November 2024 · 5 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Consumer Prices (Oct. 24) The slowdown in headline inflation in October was due to base effects from utilities prices. With underlying inflation climbing further above the Bank’s 2% target, the case for another rate hike next... 21st November 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Spain’s labour market sizzling Spain’s economy is outperforming the euro-zone as a whole, and the difference is also evident in the labour market, which is still tightening at a decent pace in Spain. There now appears to be little... 21st November 2024 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB more optimistic that inflation is under control The South African Reserve Bank’s decision to lower its repo rate by 25bp to 7.75% was not a surprise and Governor Kganyago sounded more optimistic that inflation is under control. Lingering concerns... 21st November 2024 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Morocco’s economy to accelerate Morocco’s weaker economic performance this year is likely to be a blip. Buoyed by low and stable inflation, looser monetary policy, and a burgeoning manufacturing sector, we expect Morocco’s economy... 21st November 2024 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack ANZ Chart Pack (Nov. 2024) Our ANZ Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The Antipodean central banks will tread different paths on policy over the forecast horizon. With the... 21st November 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Jump in negotiated wage growth largely due to one-offs The jump in euro-zone negotiated wage growth in Q3, to a record high of 5.4%, was mostly due to one-off payments in Germany. Wage growth elsewhere was little changed. With headline inflation around 2%... 20th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Oct. '24) The drop in South Africa’s headline inflation, to 2.8% y/y, in October, will make it harder for the SARB to strike a hawkish tone regarding inflation pressures at its monetary policy committee meeting... 20th November 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Oct. 2024) October’s surprisingly large rebound in CPI inflation from 1.7% to 2.3% (CE 2.1%, consensus & BoE 2.2%) won’t stop the Bank of England from cutting interest rates further. But it lends some support to... 20th November 2024 · 3 mins read
