Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Apr.) The large fall in Mexican inflation to just 2.2% y/y in April (from 3.2% y/y in March) should embolden the central bank to step up the easing cycle when it meets later this month. We’ve pencilled in a... 7th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update CPI measurement problems dwarfed by other concerns The impact of the lockdowns on the ability of statisticians to collect price data means that measures of inflation will be less accurate than normal. However, this will probably have little impact on... 6th May 2020 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden GDP (Q1) & Switzerland CPI (Apr.) The comparatively small fall in Swedish GDP in Q1 appears to owe as much to a strong January and February as Sweden’s lighter-touch lockdown. Accordingly, today’s data underplay the scale of the... 5th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Apr.) The fall in Turkish inflation in April, coupled with growing evidence of a sharp economic downturn, may tempt the central bank to cut interest rates further. But this would severely test investors’... 4th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Unemployment lower, inflation higher than expected At the end of a data-heavy week, we have learnt that the euro-zone economy slumped as much as expected in Q1, but unemployment rose much less than anticipated in March. Meanwhile, the highlights of... 1st May 2020 · 7 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q1), HICP (Apr.), Unemp. (Mar.) The blizzard of depressing economic data released this morning confirms that the euro-zone economy was in freefall at the end of March, with GDP dropping by a record amount throughout the region. This... 30th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Easing lockdowns will boost growth The strict lockdowns have resulted in a massive drop in demand, but they have also been successful at ‘flattening the curve’ or reducing the number of new daily cases of Covid-19 in both countries... 30th April 2020 · 10 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Consumption to rebound as lockdown is ending Several Australian states have started to end their lockdowns and will probably relax restrictions on economic activity further over the next few months. A rapid easing would pose upside risks to our... 30th April 2020 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Consumer Prices (Q1) Inflation was accelerating ahead of the virus outbreak but the surge in spare capacity should push underlying inflation below 1% over the coming quarters. 29th April 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Apr. 2020) The decline in Brazilian inflation to 2.9% y/y in the first half of April suggests that Copom will be able to lower the Selic rate by an additional 50bp (to 3.25%) next week. The political crisis and... 28th April 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar.) Headline inflation was unchanged in March, but we suspect this may be the last positive reading for a while yet. Corona containment and the prior plunge in oil prices should translate into inflation... 24th April 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Apr.) The collapse in Mexican inflation to just 2.1% y/y in the first half of April will give Banxico more space to support the economy. It looks increasingly likely that the central bank will follow up... 23rd April 2020 · 2 mins read
Consumer Prices (Mar.) The 1.3%-point slump in inflation in March was mainly due to lower energy prices and, with gasoline inflation falling even further this month, we expect headline inflation to drop below zero in April. 22nd April 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Mar.) The larger-than-expected fall in South African inflation, to 4.1% y/y, in March will give the central bank more room for manoeuvre. Although yesterday’s announcement of a fiscal package by the... 22nd April 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Mar.) In March CPI inflation took the first leg of what we suspect will be a sustained journey down to around 0.5% by the summer, easing from 1.7% in February to 1.5%. 22nd April 2020 · 2 mins read
India Chart Pack Shadow banking woes deepen Measures to contain the spread of the coronavirus will increase strains among traditional banks, but the shadow banking sector – still reeling from a large-scale default 18 months ago – is likely to... 22nd April 2020 · 9 mins read
