UK Economics Update Chancellor triggers deflation One consequence of the new policies announced by the Chancellor last week is that the UK will soon enter a period of deflation. But this will be the good form of deflation, which is temporary, boosts... 13th July 2020 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway Consumer Prices (Jun.) Previous falls in the krone will ensure that inflation stays above the Norges Bank’s target throughout H2. Nonetheless, this effect will fade in early-2021 and policymakers will be in no rush to raise... 10th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Jun.) The further rise in Mexican inflation to 3.3% y/y in June, from 2.8% y/y in May, was largely driven by higher fuel prices. We think this trend has a bit further to run, although it is unlikely to... 9th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Jun.) Egypt’s headline inflation rate picked up to 5.6% y/y in June and will probably rise a bit further over the coming months. Crucially, though, we expect inflation to remain below the mid-point of the... 9th July 2020 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Jun.) Producer prices rose last month for the first time since the outbreak of COVID-19, adding to evidence that industrial demand had mostly recovered by the end of Q2. Core inflation fell to its weakest... 9th July 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Inflation unlikely to be a pressing concern Daily price data suggest that food inflation has eased over recent weeks and, with demand also likely to remain depressed, inflation does not appear to be a pressing concern. The focus of policymakers... 9th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Jun.) Russian inflation rose to 3.2% y/y in June and we think that it will rise a bit further over the coming months. But this increase should prove temporary and inflation is likely to remain below the... 8th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update What next for inflation in South Africa? Weak core inflation is likely to keep the headline rate in South Africa close to the bottom of the Reserve Bank’s 3-6% target range both this year and next. This should allow the central bank to keep... 8th July 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economic Outlook The long road back to normality India’s failure to contain the coronavirus and the government’s underwhelming policy response mean the economy will suffer its largest drop in annual output on record this year. In addition, the... 7th July 2020 · 16 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Jun.) The jump in Turkish inflation in June, to 12.6% y/y, as well as last week’s surprise decision by the central bank to leave interest rates unchanged, reinforces our view that the easing cycle is over... 3rd July 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What next for EM inflation? A rebound in fuel inflation will push up headline inflation in most EMs over the coming months, even as food and core price pressures moderate. Alongside the recovery in activity, this means that the... 2nd July 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland CPI (Jun.) The lack of price pressures in Switzerland is nothing new, but will ensure that the SNB remains poised to combat bouts of upward pressure on the franc for the foreseeable future. 2nd July 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash HICP (June) The increase in euro-zone headline inflation in June was entirely due to higher energy inflation, while the core rate edged down and looks likely to fall further over the rest of the year. 30th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Economies coming roaring back Restrictions on activity have lifted in both countries. While some states in Australia still limit the size of groups and capacity at restaurants, New Zealand has now lifted all domestic restrictions... 30th June 2020 · 10 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Fragile demand to keep underlying inflation subdued Over the next few months, inflation will be dominated by oil price effects as the previous slump unwinds and headline rates rise from their current lows. Some components of core inflation, such as... 25th June 2020 · 14 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Jun. 2020) Brazil’s broadly steady mid-month inflation reading for June, of 1.9% y/y, masked the fact that a rise in food inflation offset falls in inflation in most other price categories. Weak price pressures... 25th June 2020 · 2 mins read
