Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) Headline inflation turned negative in April for the first time since 2016 adjusting for the impact of October’s sales tax hike. We expect it to weaken further over the coming months as services and... 22nd May 2020 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Focus Inflation not the easy way to cut public debt burdens One of the key consequences of the coronavirus is set to be a sharp rise in government debt burdens. We have already looked at whether governments can just tolerate their rise in debt here. But this... 20th May 2020 · 31 mins read
Consumer Prices (Apr.) As energy prices are now rebounding, inflation is unlikely to fall much below the -0.2% recorded in April. Nevertheless, we do not expect it to rise back above 0.5% until at least the end of the year. 20th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final HICP (Apr.) We suspect that harvesting and supply issues rather than stockpiling caused the increase in food inflation in April, and that these effects will persist in the summer. Nonetheless, with core inflation... 20th May 2020 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack Lockdown hasn’t flattened the curve yet Despite a stringent lockdown that has lasted nearly two months, new recorded cases of COVID-19 in India remain on a sharp upward trajectory and hit a record high yesterday. The true number of cases is... 20th May 2020 · 10 mins read
UK Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Apr.) The energy-driven slump in inflation in April is unlikely to concern the Bank of England much, but it might find the easing in underlying price pressures a little harder to ignore. And with the... 20th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Green shoots after Golden Week holiday Economic activity remained severely damaged by coronavirus containment efforts in early May. In particular, the retail sector usually receives a substantial boost during Golden Week but the number of... 15th May 2020 · 10 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Apr.) The partial release of the WPI inflation figures for April strongly suggest that the headline rate has dropped. This supports our view that the inflation outlook shouldn’t be a concern for... 14th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Four points (and charts) on the plunge in EM inflation The broad-based decline in inflation across the emerging world since the pandemic struck has been driven in part by a dip in fuel inflation, but core inflation is softening in many countries too. We... 13th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Consumer Prices (Apr.) While the Riksbank will look through the energy-driven plunge in headline inflation in April, the further fall in underlying price pressures will be harder to ignore. All told, while policymakers’... 13th May 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) & Industrial Production (Mar.) As a result of the Statistics Office being only partly operational due to India’s nationwide lockdown, the headline CPI data for April weren’t published as originally scheduled today. But the... 13th May 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) The 0.8% m/m fall in consumer prices last month reflects the sharp drop in energy prices together with an unprecedented 0.4% m/m fall in core CPI. But the latter was largely due to very big declines... 12th May 2020 · 3 mins read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Apr.) Consumer and producer price inflation fell sharply last month, reflecting the continued weakness in demand. Price pressures are likely to ease further in the coming months, strengthening the case for... 12th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway Consumer Prices (Apr.) The food-driven jump in the core inflation rate in Norway in April will not trouble the Norges Bank. With the economy facing a slow recovery, a prolonged period of record low interest rates is on the... 11th May 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Partial reopening doing little to boost activity While the nationwide lockdown has been extended again, the latest phase includes a significant relaxation of containment measures in areas less affected by the virus. In principle, this should ease... 8th May 2020 · 5 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Apr.) The large fall in Mexican inflation to just 2.2% y/y in April (from 3.2% y/y in March) should embolden the central bank to step up the easing cycle when it meets later this month. We’ve pencilled in a... 7th May 2020 · 2 mins read
