Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Feb. 2020) The modest decline in Brazilian inflation, to 4.0% y/y, probably gives Copom leeway to lower the Selic rate by 25bp when it meets next week, despite the fall in the real. 11th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Is the risk of deflation back? While the drop in oil prices will push inflation down in the near term, the bigger disinflationary risk could stem from the effect of the coronavirus on economic activity. Indeed, we said after the... 10th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Feb.) The sharp fall in Egyptian inflation in February to 5.3% y/y puts it well below the lower bound of the central bank’s target range. Coupled with mounting fears over the coronavirus outbreak, this... 10th March 2020 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Feb.) The coronavirus outbreak is putting downward pressure on inflation. While supply chain disruptions have kept food prices high, weaker demand has weighed on the price of other goods and services. 10th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update What do falling oil prices mean for Emerging Asia? Most countries in Emerging Asia are net importers of oil, so would usually stand to gain from a big drop in prices. But with the coronavirus continuing to spread and people increasingly avoiding... 9th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Feb.) Given rising inflation and the sharp fall in the peso, we no longer think that the Bank of Mexico will cut its key rate this month in line with the Fed. Policymakers will probably leave rates on hold. 9th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Feb.) The further fall in Russian inflation to 2.3% y/y in February leaves the door open for the central bank to continue its easing cycle this month. Although market expectations for easing have been pared... 6th March 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Feb.) Headline consumer price inflation is likely to have dropped sharply in February, in large part due to a moderation in food inflation. This should further embolden the RBI to follow its global peers... 5th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland CPI & Sweden Services PMI (Feb.) The return of deflation to Switzerland in February will only strengthen the policymakers’ resolve to prevent the franc from rising much further. Following yesterday’s emergency rate cut by the Fed... 4th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Feb.) & Unemployment (Jan.) February’s fall in inflation reflected the decline in energy prices as a result of the coronavirus outbreak. But if the virus starts to sap domestic demand, then core inflation may decline slightly in... 3rd March 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Feb.) The further increase in Turkish inflation in February probably won’t be enough to deter the central bank from easing monetary policy a little more in the next couple of months. But policymakers have... 3rd March 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Threat from the coronavirus continues to grow We estimate GDP growth in Australia continued to muddle along in Q4, edging up from 0.4% q/q in Q3 to 0.5% q/q. In New Zealand, we think a stronger contribution from net trade was offset by a decline... 26th February 2020 · 10 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Feb.) Stronger headline inflation in early February was mostly due to food prices; core inflation remained stable. Even so, we think that the persistence of above-target inflation will limit policymakers to... 24th February 2020 · 2 mins read
India Chart Pack The coronavirus impact on Indian industry Temporary disruption from the outbreak of the coronavirus should have limited macroeconomic impact on Indian industry. After all, India has a negligible supply-chain exposure to China, where factory... 24th February 2020 · 9 mins read
India Economics Weekly Trump trip, the “tunnel of testing trade-offs” Progress on trade negotiations will be high on the agenda during President Trump’s visit to India next week. But we have low expectations for any major breakthrough given the protectionist turn taken... 21st February 2020 · 4 mins read
Japan Data Response Flash PMIs (Feb.) The renewed drop in the manufacturing PMI coupled with a slump in the services PMI suggests that the coronavirus has started to take a toll on Japan’s economy. 21st February 2020 · 2 mins read
