Africa Data Response Nigeria CPI (Mar. 2020) The slight rise in Nigerian inflation in March, to 12.3% y/y, is unlikely to prevent policymakers from cutting their key rate in May to ease the country’s economic pain caused by the coronavirus. 21st April 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Output to fall the most since Great Depression The restrictions imposed to limit the spread of the coronavirus will result in GDP falling at a double-digit rate in Australia and New Zealand in Q2. While activity will bounce back over the coming... 20th April 2020 · 20 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - Consumer Prices (Q1) The rise in headline inflation from 1.9% in Q3 to 2.5% in Q4 will be of cold comfort to the RBNZ given the virus outbreak may cause inflation to slow below 1% before long. 20th April 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Chart Pack New cases not exploding but economic hit still huge A second wave of virus cases driven by rising infections in Tokyo and Osaka has triggered a major shift in economic behaviour. And while new cases in the two lynchpins of the Japanese economy have... 17th April 2020 · 11 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Consumer Prices & Reg. Unemp. (Mar.) While the decline in headline inflation in Sweden in March owed much to lower energy prices, persistently below-target core price pressures and the virus-related economic slump opens the door to... 15th April 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Mar.) Although not the preferred measure for policymakers, the drop in the headline WPI rate in March reinforces our view that inflation is no concern at this stage. Instead, the priority now is for the... 15th April 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar.) Headline CPI inflation dropped to a four-month low in March and timely indicators suggest a further easing in price pressures so far in April. With inflation no concern, the priority for policymakers... 13th April 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Mar. 2020) The larger-than-expected fall in Brazilian inflation, to 3.3% y/y last month, adds to reasons to think that Copom will cut the policy rate by another 50bp (to 3.25%) when it meets in early May. 9th April 2020 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Mar.) The slight fall in Egyptian inflation in March to 5.1% y/y leaves the headline rate well below the central bank’s target range which, coupled with the economic hit from the draconian measures to... 9th April 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Collapse in demand and oil prices to anchor inflation Given the concerns about public health and the impact of the national lockdown, the current rate of inflation should not constrain the actions of policymakers. Further ahead though, the likelihood... 8th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway Consumer Prices (Mar.) While core inflation in Norway remained slightly above policymakers’ target in March, the precipitous plunge in economic activity raises the chance that Norway will join the sub-zero interest rate... 8th April 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Output to fall more than during global financial crisis Lockdowns will soon be imposed across much of Japan, triggering a decline of more than 10% in economic activity this quarter. The government’s latest fiscal package is intended to help firms stay... 8th April 2020 · 19 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Mar.) The larger-than-expected fall in Mexican inflation in March, to 3.3% y/y, should ease near-term concerns at the central bank about the impact of the fall in the peso on prices. More importantly, with... 7th April 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Mar.) The rise in Russian inflation to 2.5% y/y in March probably marks the start of a gradual pick-up over the next few months as the effects of the weaker ruble feed through to consumer prices. But with... 6th April 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Mar.) The drop in Turkish inflation in March, coupled with the sharp downturn in the economy, means that the central bank is likely to follow up last month’s emergency 100bp interest rate cut with further... 3rd April 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland CPI (Mar.) Having fallen further into negative territory in March, Swiss inflation is likely to remain below zero for the rest of 2020. This will strengthen policymakers’ resolve to prevent the franc from rising... 2nd April 2020 · 2 mins read
