Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) Headline inflation edged down in January and we expect it to moderate further this year as capacity shortages diminish. A contraction in GDP this year should lead to easing price pressures, offsetting... 21st February 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Feb. 2020) The modest fall in Brazilian inflation in the middle of the month, to 4.2% y/y, confirmed that it has passed its peak. The headline rate is likely to edge down further over the course of the year... 20th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Consumer Prices (Jan.) Following the rise to 2.4% in January, a sharp decline in energy inflation will pull headline inflation back down to around 1.5% by April. Core inflation is also likely to decline, but not by as much. 19th February 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Jan.) The rise in CPI inflation for the first time in six months in January was in line with the Bank of England’s expectations, so this is unlikely to move the dial on the outlook for interest rates. 19th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Jan.) The sharper-than-expected fall in Swedish inflation in January may test the Riksbank’s resolve to keep policy unchanged. With subdued GDP growth likely to weigh on underlying inflation this year, we... 19th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Jan.) South African inflation jumped to the 4.5% y/y midpoint of policymakers’ target range in January, which strengthens our view that the current easing cycle will end after just one more cut. 19th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Consumer Prices (Jan.) Saudi inflation rose for a twelfth consecutive month in January and, while we expect a fresh slowdown in the non-oil sector to keep a lid on underlying price pressures, further hikes to local fuel... 18th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria CPI (Jan. 2020) The further rise in Nigerian inflation in January, to 12.1% y/y, suggests that border closures have continued to drive up food prices. This will limit the central bank’s scope to lower interest rates... 18th February 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Jan.) The RBI doesn’t put much weight on the wholesale price measure of inflation, but the pick-up in core WPI inflation supports our view that the room for further monetary easing has diminished. 14th February 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) The continued stability of core CPI inflation in January supports our view that the Fed will not be raising interest rates again for the foreseeable future. 13th February 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) & Industrial Production (Dec.) Inflation rose faster than most expected in January due to a jump in core inflation. With an economic recovery around the corner, underlying price pressures should strengthen further over the coming... 12th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway, Switz. & Denmark Consumer Prices (Jan.) The unexpected jump in underlying inflation in Norway lends support to our view that the Norges Bank is more likely to hike than to cut interest rates next. Meanwhile, the continued absence of price... 10th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Jan.) The modest rise in Egyptian inflation in January leaves it below the mid-point of the central bank’s target range and, after pausing for breath at the last MPC meeting, we think that policymakers will... 10th February 2020 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Jan.) Seasonal volatility and coronavirus disruptions pushed up consumer prices in January. But the PBOC is likely to look through this temporary rise in inflation when setting policy. 10th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Mexico CPI (Jan.) The rise in Mexican inflation from 2.8% y/y in December to 3.2% y/y in January supports our view that, while the central bank will cut interest rates further, the easing cycle won’t go as far as... 7th February 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Jan.) Headline consumer price inflation is likely to have edged up in January, in large part due to a continued increase in food inflation. Further ahead, food inflation is likely to ease, but we expect... 7th February 2020 · 4 mins read
