Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Jun.) The rise in Mexican headline inflation to 3.2% y/y in the middle of June will keep policymakers in a cautious mood – something that’s likely to be reflected in the tone of the statement from tomorrow... 24th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Consumer Prices (May) Saudi inflation edged down to 1.1% y/y last month as a further jump in food inflation was more than offset by weaker price pressures in other major categories. But the hike in the VAT rate means that... 24th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Apr.) The plunge in South African inflation to just 3.0% y/y in April is likely to be followed by further declines, allowing the central bank to cut interest rates further. We expect another 75bp of cuts in... 24th June 2020 · 2 mins read
India Chart Pack Financial conditions ease but headwinds remain After tightening dramatically in March following the outbreak of the coronavirus, our proprietary index shows that financial conditions in India have eased substantially over the past couple of months... 24th June 2020 · 9 mins read
Japan Economics Focus Why did huge monetary stimulus not boost inflation? Premature fiscal policy tightening is part of the reason why inflation did not gain much momentum after the BoJ launched large-scale quantitative easing in 2013. But the main reason why inflation has... 23rd June 2020 · 17 mins read
Consumer Prices (May) The further fall in inflation to -0.4% in May was unexpected but most likely marked the trough. As gasoline prices rebounded further in June and some items are likely to increase in price as... 17th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria CPI (May) The slight increase in Nigerian inflation in May, to 12.4% y/y, will probably be followed by further rises over the coming months, but we still think that more interest rate cuts lie in store later... 17th June 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices (May) May’s further fall in inflation is probably only the beginnings of a prolonged period of very soft price pressure that we think will prompt the Bank of England to announce a total of £350bn more QE... 17th June 2020 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (May) Wholesale price inflation data for May show a broad-based easing in price pressures. This reinforces our view that inflation shouldn’t be a barrier to further policy loosening, and we expect the RBI... 15th June 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (May) & Industrial Production (Apr.) 12th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Consumer Prices (May) The rise in Swedish inflation in May ties in with signs that the economy has got off comparatively lightly by virtue of its light-touch lockdown. That said, the May figure was skewed in part by... 11th June 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (May) The further fall in core consumer prices in May was mainly driven by continued declines in travel-sensitive categories including airline fares and motor vehicle insurance. There is still little to... 10th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (May 2020) The decline in Brazilian inflation to a multi-decade low of 1.9% y/y in May will give Copom plenty of room to cut interest rates when it meets next week. We’ve pencilled in a 50bp cut at that meeting... 10th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi inflation and the impact of the VAT hike The tripling of the VAT rate from July will cause inflation in Saudi Arabia to jump, but the impact may be relatively less severe than it was when VAT was first introduced at the start of 2018. That... 10th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (May) The fall in Egyptian inflation to 4.7% y/y in May leaves the headline rate well below the lower bound of the central bank’s target range and, with policymakers’ focus shifting away from supporting the... 10th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway Consumer Prices (May) Recent falls in the krone contributed to the pick-up in core inflation in Norway in May, but this effect is likely to fade in H2. Accordingly, the Norges Bank will be in no rush to tighten monetary... 10th June 2020 · 2 mins read
