US Economics Weekly Lasting price pressures building The continued surge in prices last month was again mostly concentrated in sectors reopening or facing intense supply constraints, which allows the Fed to stick with its “largely transitory” story for... 11th June 2021 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly No inflation scare in Scandinavia or Switzerland… If there is a global inflation scare, the Scandinavians are yet to get the memo. In a week when we learnt that core inflation hit a 28-year high in the US in May, we also learnt that the core... 11th June 2021 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Inflation fears, Euro 2020 hopes The mounting evidence that price pressures are rising is a threat to our forecast that CPI inflation won’t spend a long time above the 2% target until late in 2023. The good news, though, is that if... 11th June 2021 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Update We don’t expect higher inflation to derail US equities While we think that inflation in the US will prove more persistent than both the Fed and investors appear to anticipate, we still expect the S&P 500 to make some further gains over the next couple of... 11th June 2021 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Monsoon puts a cloud over vaccine rollout The monsoon season has begun in India and the extent of the rains has a significant impact on the incomes of hundreds of millions of families given the high level of employment in agriculture. A good... 11th June 2021 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Inflation, monetary policy and the outlook for US & E-Z yields Despite the limited market reaction to today’s higher-than expected US CPI print, we still think that the yield of US 10-year Treasuries will rise this year as high inflation proves persistent. We... 10th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update How concerning is the recent rise in inflation? A rise in inflation was always likely to happen this year as economies re-opened and energy prices recovered from last year’s sharp falls. But in the US in particular, the increase since the start of... 10th June 2021 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (May) The further jump in core CPI inflation to a 28-year high of 3.8% in May, from 3.0%, was again driven by the same handful of categories most directly affect by the lifting of virus restrictions. But... 10th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway & Sweden Consumer Prices (May) Inflation in Norway and Sweden was lower than expected in May, with core inflation falling in both economies. This will reassure Sweden’s Riksbank that it can keep its policy rate on hold, but we... 10th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (May) Egypt’s headline inflation rate rose to 4.8% y/y in May, the fastest pace recorded so far this year. But it remained below the lower bound of the central bank’s (CBE’s) target range, supporting our... 10th June 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack Inflation risks rising The risks to our forecast that CPI inflation will rise from 1.5% in April to a peak of 2.6% in November before dropping back in 2022 are increasingly on the upside. Rises in shipping costs and global... 10th June 2021 · 9 mins read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan: severe capacity constraints but few inflation fears Taiwan’s economy is struggling with severe capacity constraints but there are few signs in recent data that this is fuelling broad-based wage or price pressure. That’s a stark contrast with the US... 10th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily We don’t expect rising inflation to lead to EM currency strength Despite rising inflation, we continue to think that most emerging market (EM) central banks will tighten policy more slowly than investors currently expect. 9th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (May) The further jump in Brazil’s headline inflation rate last month, to 8.1% y/y, makes a 75bp hike in the Selic rate (to 4.25%) next week certain and Copom will probably signal that another 75bp hike is... 9th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (May) The rise in Mexican core inflation to its highest rate in over three years in May, at 4.4%, appears mainly to be related to temporary factors. Policymakers at the central bank will probably continue... 9th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Supply shortages and EM inflation risks Supply-related price pressures are building, particularly in Central Europe and parts of East Asia. And while the factors behind this should prove temporary, output gaps in the most-affected countries... 9th June 2021 · 3 mins read
