Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Rising inflation to delay resumption of CBE’s easing The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) kept interest rates unchanged at Thursday’s MPC meeting amid rising price pressures. Against this backdrop, we think that the central bank is likely to delay the... 29th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Consumer Prices (Oct.) & Czech GDP (Q3) The rise in Poland’s headline inflation rate to 6.8% y/y in October opens the door for the central bank to deliver a 25bp at next week’s MPC meeting. Elsewhere, Czechia’s economy performed a little... 29th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA set to ditch yield target next week The rise in trimmed mean inflation into the RBA’s 2-3% target band for the first time in six years has only added to the aggressive repricing in the outlook for the RBA’s policy rate over the past... 29th October 2021 · 7 mins read
China Chart Pack Energy shortages starting to ease Despite a flurry of media reports in September hinting at widespread disruption, the data suggest that China’s recent power shortages have not been too severe. Electricity output actually rose 0.6% in... 29th October 2021 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly Oil price risks manageable for now High global oil prices have in the past contributed to worryingly-large current account deficits in India, but prices would have to rise much further than they have recently for that to return as a... 29th October 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Mounting headwinds set the stage for slower growth The EM recovery is now entering a more difficult phase as the boost from economic re-opening fades, supply shortages bite, growth in China weakens and the terms of trade worsen for major commodity... 28th October 2021 · 26 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Hope on vaccines, but still a long way to go COVID-19 vaccine coverage remains pitifully low across much of Sub-Saharan Africa, with less than 10% of populations having received at least a first dose in most countries. But there are signs that... 28th October 2021 · 11 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack What do higher oil prices mean outside of the Gulf? The Gulf countries will be among the biggest winners globally from the recent rally in energy prices but most other parts of the Middle East and North Africa are net oil importers and are likely to be... 27th October 2021 · 10 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Headwinds beyond vaccine woes intensifying Extremely low vaccine coverage continues to cast a dark cloud over recovery prospects in Sub-Saharan Africa and this will be compounded by deteriorations in the terms of trade and tighter fiscal... 27th October 2021 · 22 mins read
US Fed Watch Inflation concerns to be offset by weaker growth The Fed is set to announce at next week’s FOMC meeting that it will shortly begin to taper its monthly asset purchases. But of more interest will be the extent to which the new statement reflects the... 27th October 2021 · 8 mins read
Asia Chart Pack South East Asia bouncing back The near-term outlook for South East Asia has improved dramatically over the past month or so. Daily cases of COVID-19 have collapsed and are now less than one-third of the level they were at in... 27th October 2021 · 15 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q3 2021) The decline in headline inflation in Q3 was entirely driven by base effects. More importantly, the strong rise in underlying inflation will keep pressure on the RBA to keep reducing monetary stimulus. 27th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Fiscal risks in the spotlight The growing likelihood that Brazil’s government will circumvent its spending cap adds to broader signs that austerity is becoming politically difficult to implement across the region. For instance... 26th October 2021 · 10 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Recoveries under fire as supply crisis spreads The global recovery will slow in the coming quarters as the initial post-lockdown rebound fades and policy support is reduced. At the same time, supply shortages are likely to persist well into next... 26th October 2021 · 45 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Renewed virus waves cast clouds over the recovery COVID-19 outbreaks have surged across the region in the past month. Record high daily cases have been reported in Russia, Romania, Bulgaria and Latvia and infections are rising sharply elsewhere... 26th October 2021 · 12 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Oct. 2021) The larger-than-expected increase in Brazilian inflation in the middle of October, to 10.3% y/y, alongside the latest rise in inflation expectations mean that Copom is likely to step up the pace of... 26th October 2021 · 2 mins read
