China Data Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (May) Producer price inflation continued to surge and reached its highest level since September 2008 last month, on the back of a further rise in global commodity prices. That said, there are some signs in... 9th June 2021 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Surveys point to surge in wage and price inflation The surge in job openings and voluntary quits in April add to the survey and anecdotal evidence that labour shortages are becoming increasingly acute. Those shortages look set to persist for some time... 8th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Taking stock of US inflation expectations and Treasuries The recent pull-back in the 10-year Treasury yield mainly seems to reflect less concern about the long-term outlook for inflation, even though Thursday’s CPI data will probably show that core... 8th June 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (May) The larger-than-expected rise in Russian inflation to 6.0% y/y in May was driven by broad-based increases in both food and non-food goods and we think that the balance of factors is now firmly tilted... 7th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland CPI (May) Inflation in Switzerland is likely to keep climbing over the coming months, but we still expect it to fall back next year. So the SNB looks set to keep interest rates on hold for a very long time. 7th June 2021 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Democrats’ spending plans hit by reality check The Senate Parliamentarian delivered some bad news to the Democrats this week – ruling that they could introduce another reconciliation to the current budget, which would allow them to pass more of... 4th June 2021 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB likely to look through rising inflation May’s inflation data were a little stronger than we and the consensus had expected, and inflation looks set to keep rising in the second half of the year. At next week's ECB meeting, we think that... 4th June 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Riksbank not marvelling at proposed Act changes While many of the changes in the new proposed Riksbank Act are benign, the Bank argues with some merit that the new legislation would make it more difficult for it to use its balance sheet during... 4th June 2021 · 7 mins read
India Economics Update RBI will keep policy loose for a long time yet The Reserve Bank kept the repo rate on hold at a record low today and announced plans to ramp up government bond purchases on the secondary market, underlining its commitment to supporting the... 4th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Solid Q1 GDP more than makes up for Q2 weakness The strong rise in GDP in Q1 has prompted us to revise up our GDP forecasts for this year. And while the Victoria lockdown will weigh on consumption growth in Q2, sentiment is holding up so we expect... 4th June 2021 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea vaccinations surge, Philippines rate cuts loom A surge in vaccinations in Korea has brightened the prospects for the consumer recovery and strengthened our view that the central bank will be able to begin tightening monetary policy this year. In... 4th June 2021 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Oil price rally continues, tourism re-opening Oil prices hit their highest level in more than two years this week and, combined with higher oil output over the rest of this year, will help to rein in large twin budget and current account deficits... 3rd June 2021 · 7 mins read
ECB Watch Preparing the ground for a super-dovish taper We think the ECB will tweak its monetary policy statement next week by pledging to maintain favourable financing conditions but not renewing its pledge to keep PEPP purchases at the recent... 3rd June 2021 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (May) The latest falls in the lira mean that, despite the fall in Turkey’s headline inflation rate to 16.6% y/y last month, the central bank (CBRT)will probably leave interest rates unchanged at this month... 3rd June 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE: inflation a growing risk as economies re-open Price pressures in Central Europe are building from a broad range of sources and, while most of these are likely to be temporary, the issue is that countries were experiencing stubbornly high... 2nd June 2021 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus The impact of the pandemic on inflation We expect inflation to rise to the mid-point of the RBA’s target band over the next couple of years. The main driver is a continued tightening of the labour market and a pick-up in wage growth. By... 2nd June 2021 · 16 mins read
