Capital Daily Why isn’t high inflation taking a greater toll on the stock market? US equities have shrugged off this year’s surge in inflation, probably because it has not coincided with either a rise in the real yields of Treasuries or weakness in corporate earnings. We expect a... 11th November 2021 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Latest inflation data less worrying for the ECB than the Fed While inflation will stay well above target in both the US and Germany in the months ahead, the detail of the latest inflation prints seems to confirm that price pressures are likely to be much more... 11th November 2021 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Tunisia unrest, Kuwaiti government, Oman fuel prices Escalating social unrest in Tunisia and opposition to fiscal reforms from the powerful UGTT labour union will make it more difficult for President Saied to push through much-needed fiscal reforms and... 11th November 2021 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily US inflation compensation revisited US Treasury yields rose sharply following the release of US CPI inflation figures, which showed that inflation reached 6.2% y/y in October, reversing some of their recent falls. But, despite the pick... 10th November 2021 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Inflation on the launchpad We’ve been warning for a while that CPI inflation would rise further than most people expect and have recently pushed our own forecast even higher. We now think CPI inflation will rise from 3.1% in... 10th November 2021 · 9 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) The 0.9% m/m surge in consumer prices in October illustrates that the upward pressure from supply shortages remains intense and that, even when those effects eventually fade, rising cyclical pressures... 10th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Oct.) The larger-than-expected jump in Brazilian inflation, to 10.7% y/y, last month, coming alongside a rise in inflation expectations and continued fiscal risks, increases the likelihood that Copom ups... 10th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Oct.) Egypt’s headline inflation rate eased to 6.3% y/y in October and is likely to remain around 6.0-6.5% over the rest of this year and in early 2022. Against this backdrop, we think the Central Bank of... 10th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Inflation (October) The breakdown of October’s inflation data confirms that most of the increase, from 4.1% in September to 4.6% on the HICP measure, was due to higher energy prices. We suspect that inflation will edge... 10th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Thailand in no rush to tighten The Bank of Thailand (BoT) left interest rates on hold today at 0.5%, and the poor outlook for the economy means rates are likely to remain low for some considerable time. 10th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway Consumer Prices (Oct.) The fact that the Norges Bank’s target measure of inflation fell to below 1% in October and is likely to remain at around this level until early 2023 will not stop policymakers from pressing on with... 10th November 2021 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Oct.) Producer price inflation continued to surge and reached a new high last month. But this largely reflects temporary disruption in a handful of industries from energy shortages, which are already easing... 10th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Oct.) The rise in inflation in Mexico to 6.2% y/y in October paves the way for another rate hike at the central bank’s meeting on Thursday. However, the surprise fall in GDP in Q3 will probably keep the... 9th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Recovery slowed by supply chain problems Economic growth has slowed sharply as output approaches its pre-pandemic level. We think that GDP will probably increase by only around 0.5% q/q in the final quarter, down from 2.2% in Q3... 8th November 2021 · 12 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Chile feeling the heat, Brazil bending the (fiscal) rules Strong September activity data out of Chile this week adds to signs that that the economy is starting to overheat, which will put even more pressure on the central bank to take some steam out of the... 5th November 2021 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly The end of king coal, Korea inflation worries If the ambitious targets laid down by the 2015 Paris Agreement are to be met, then global coal consumption will need to fall sharply and eventually be eliminated. This poses a huge challenge for many... 5th November 2021 · 7 mins read
