India Economics Weekly Can the pick-up in vaccinations be sustained? India’s vaccine rollout appears to have shifted into a higher gear, with daily vaccinations more than doubling over the past couple of weeks. If this upturn is sustained, it would significantly reduce... 25th June 2021 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update REITs, equities and the threat of higher inflation We doubt that US equity REITs would significantly outperform US equities in a period of higher inflation. 24th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Recovery takes hold and inflation pressures build Economic activity across Emerging Europe is rebounding strongly now that virus waves have passed and restrictions have been lifted. The recovery in Q2 looks to have been strongest in Russia, Israel... 24th June 2021 · 15 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Third wave fears grow Worries about a third wave of COVID-19 in the region have intensified in the past month and the tightening of lockdown measures in some countries – most notably South Africa – will weigh on recoveries... 24th June 2021 · 13 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Jun.) The strength of the Mexican headline and core inflation readings in the first half of June is likely to prompt a more cautious approach by Banxico at its meeting later today. Even so, we suspect that... 24th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Higher oil prices to help narrow twin deficits The price of oil has continued to rise and will help to improve balance sheets in the Gulf. With oil prices at $75pb, all Gulf economies with the exceptions of Bahrain and Oman are likely to be... 24th June 2021 · 15 mins read
Asia Economics Update Philippines: rate cuts on the horizon The central bank in the Philippines (BSP) left its main policy rate on hold at 2.00% today, but with inflation fears receding, more rate cuts to support the beleaguered economy are only a few months... 24th June 2021 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack Borrowing costs will remain in check India’s 10-year government bond yields have remained stable at around 6% over the past month, taking the unexpectedly large jump in inflation in May and a more hawkish turn by the US Fed in their... 23rd June 2021 · 10 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (May) Although South Africa’s headline inflation rate jumped to a multi-year high of 5.2% y/y last month, the weakness of core inflation and the recent tightening of lockdown measures means that the Reserve... 23rd June 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update How much further will inflation rise? The recent jump in India’s consumer price inflation has taken us (and most others) by surprise and we have revised up our near-term forecasts. However, a big chunk of the surge – even in the most... 22nd June 2021 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update A deep dive into Mexican inflation Headline Mexican inflation has now peaked and will drop back within Banxico’s 2-4% target range as the earlier spike in fuel inflation unwinds. In contrast, we expect that core inflation will continue... 21st June 2021 · 5 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Inflation picture more nuanced than headlines suggest While rising commodity prices and supply shortages are boosting inflation everywhere for now, the outlook is mixed. The boost from energy prices will fade soon as the anniversary of last year’s slump... 21st June 2021 · 15 mins read
Global Economics Update How much of the rise in inflation is due to ‘base effects’? Much of the rise in inflation in major advanced economies from February to May has reflected the fact that prices fell in the same period a year ago. That said, depending on how you measure it, around... 18th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly New CPI weights could keep a lid on inflation The introduction of new weights for the June CPI means that some of the item-specific price increases that we expect will not push up headline inflation by as much as we thought. Nevertheless, there... 18th June 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Inflation concerns build Inflation has risen sharply across the emerging world in the last few months, prompting much more cautious words from central banks (mainly in Latin America and Emerging Europe), but we expect that EM... 18th June 2021 · 11 mins read
China Economics Weekly Inflation unlikely to rise any further this year While the prospect of rising inflation is a key global concern, in China disinflationary pressures have been building and we are revising down our forecast for consumer price inflation over the second... 18th June 2021 · 5 mins read
