ECB policymakers were out in force this week insisting that the Bank will not raise rates next year. We agree that they are very unlikely to do so, not least because we think the Bank’s inflation forecast for 2024 is likely to remain below 2% throughout next year. Next week the detailed German inflation data for October will show what drove the headline rate up to 4.6% and euro-zone industrial production data are likely to show that output fell by nearly 1% m/m in September.
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