Asia Economics Update Malaysia: rates to remain low for a long time The fact that Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) left its policy rate on hold at 1.75% today despite the poor economic outlook means any further loosening is unlikely. But with the recovery set to be slow and... 8th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Jun.) Egypt’s headline inflation rate edged up to 4.9% y/y in June and is likely to increase further over the coming months. Against this backdrop, we think the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) will keep... 8th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Jun.) The further rise in Russian inflation to a stronger-than-expected 6.5% y/y in June means the central bank (CBR) is likely to up the pace of tightening when it meets in a couple of weeks. A 75bp hike... 7th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Activity taking off as hospitality reopens The economy has continued to rebound strongly as governments have lifted almost all restrictions on retail and restaurants and eased rules on foreign travel. Restaurant bookings are back above pre... 7th July 2021 · 11 mins read
Capital Daily On the fading of reflation and rotation While we doubt that the “reflation” and “rotation” trades are entirely dead, they may have now largely run their course. 7th July 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s inflation risks mount, CBRT to delay rate cuts Turkish inflation hit a two-year high in June and recent domestic energy price hikes will cause it to rise even further over the next couple of months. High inflation and signs of a quick recovery... 7th July 2021 · 4 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Faster vaccine campaign allows rapid rebound Japan’s lagging vaccine rollout has finally reached cruising speed, which should allow a rapid recovery in activity over the second half of the year. The labour market may soon be as tight as it was... 7th July 2021 · 22 mins read
UK Economics CPI inflation may peak around 4% Bigger rises in commodity and component costs than we had expected mean that we now think CPI inflation will rise from 2.1% in May to a peak of about 4.0% around the turn of the year. But we still... 6th July 2021 · 9 mins read
Capital Daily This may be as good as it gets for the Aussie and Kiwi Although the RBA’s hawkish message today and further strong data out of New Zealand sent the Aussie and Kiwi higher, we are becoming less confident in our existing, bullish forecasts for both... 6th July 2021 · 6 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (May) Euro-zone retail sales rose back above their pre-pandemic level in May. And as Covid restrictions continue to be lifted, spending in the services sector is recovering very rapidly, which will provide... 6th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Jun.) The fresh rise in Turkey’s headline inflation rate to 17.5% y/y in June, coupled with signs of a strong rebound in activity after May’s three-week lockdown, means that an interest rate cut in the next... 5th July 2021 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Services & Composite PMI (Jun.) The drop in India’s PMI readings for June should soon reverse as the second virus wave has subsided and restrictions are being eased. But a rapid reopening increases the risks of fresh outbreaks... 5th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Fallen angel and a rising star Colombia’s second sovereign ratings downgrade to junk status was already largely priced in to local financial markets, but they could come under renewed pressure as public debt risks intensify over... 2nd July 2021 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update Oil prices, inflation compensation and Treasury yields Although oil prices and inflation compensation have historically moved in lockstep, we don’t think our projection that oil prices will fall over the next couple of years is inconsistent with our... 2nd July 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Surveys overstating peak price pressures At face value the business surveys published this week suggest that euro-zone inflation may soon rise to around 4%. However, we think it is unlikely to get as high as this and, even if it does, will... 2nd July 2021 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Löfven exits the stage (not pursued by a bear) The resignation of Prime Minister Stefan Löfven in Sweden has added to the period of political uncertainty in Sweden. That said, the other leading political actors would probably struggle to pass... 2nd July 2021 · 5 mins read
