Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash HICP (May) & Unemployment (Apr.) The jump in euro-zone inflation to 2.0% in May will not be the end of the upward trend, but we expect inflation to drop back sharply next year as temporary factors are reversed. 1st June 2021 · 2 mins read
China Chart Pack The three-child policy: too little, too late State media announced today that China’s family planning policy will be relaxed to allow all families to have three children, up from the current limit of two. This comes shortly after China’s once-a... 31st May 2021 · 13 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Fiscal policy to remain loose for longer Australian Treasurer Josh Frydenberg noted in October that the Government would not pursue budget repair until the unemployment rated was comfortably below 6%. However, the unemployment rate fell much... 31st May 2021 · 10 mins read
Asia Economics Focus Rate hikes coming in Korea as recovery gathers momentum With the economy rebounding strongly from the crisis, the Bank of Korea (BoK) is starting to shift its attention away from supporting growth and towards containing financial risks. We expect the BoK... 31st May 2021 · 10 mins read
US Economics Weekly Surging prices begin to weigh on confidence Negotiations over a bipartisan compromise on infrastructure spending continued this week, but the Republicans and Democrats are still so far apart in their offers that it is only a matter of time... 28th May 2021 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Oil prices and inflation, fiscal support in Taiwan Fuel price inflation across Emerging Asia will drop back over the coming months as last year’s low base starts to drop out of the annual comparison. With large output gaps set to keep underlying price... 28th May 2021 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Drop back in bond yields takes pressure off ECB The fall in sovereign bond yields over the past week may make things a little easier for the ECB Governing Council when it meets on 10 th June. We think it is likely to replace its commitment to make... 28th May 2021 · 8 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swiss seven-year itch; lots to ponder at the Riksbank The breakdown of the Swiss/EU Treaty talks has taken the headlines this week, but the Swiss economy appears to be galloping ahead in any case. While the belated release of Q1 GDP data next week is... 28th May 2021 · 5 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Upside risks to inflation as the economy re-opens The jump in inflation to 3.4% in April was stronger than most forecasters expected and, with firms’ selling price expectations rising again in May, there seem to be further upside risks to inflation... 27th May 2021 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Inflation risks build, central banks start to react The strength of inflation and expectations for a strong economic recovery have prompted a clear hawkish shift among Central European central banks. We think it will take time for a majority in favour... 27th May 2021 · 15 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Inflation edges higher Headline inflation rates have increased in almost all countries in the region since the turn of the year reflecting a combination of price pressures as economies re-open, higher food inflation and tax... 27th May 2021 · 15 mins read
RBI Watch Policy to remain loose for a long time yet We agree with financial markets and the analyst consensus that policy rates will be left on hold at the conclusion of the RBI’s upcoming MPC meeting on 4 th June, particularly given that the worst of... 27th May 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (May 2021) The further rise in Brazilian inflation, to 7.3% y/y in the middle of May, can partly be pinned on unfavourable base effects, but there are also signs of a broader increase in goods inflation. While... 25th May 2021 · 2 mins read
RBA Watch RBA to extend QE in July The Reserve Bank of Australia will still sound dovish at the upcoming meeting on 1 st June, paving the way for an extension of its bond purchase programme at the July meeting. But amidst early signs... 25th May 2021 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily The stock market rotation may have further to run Even if, as we suspect, the outperformance of the energy and materials sectors soon comes to an end, we expect the broader rotation in equity markets to continue over the next few years. 24th May 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (May) The drop in Mexico’s headline inflation to 5.8% y/y in the first half of May was driven by a sharp fall in energy inflation. While we expect that this trend will continue in the coming months, there... 24th May 2021 · 2 mins read