Global Markets Focus Can US credit spreads really stay this low? US corporate credit spreads have all but unwound the rise they saw during the recent market turbulence, and are back at very low levels by past standards. We expect them to remain compressed over the... 22nd August 2024 · 13 mins read
Capital Daily Has the dam finally broken for Asian FX? We think Asian currencies will generally continue to rise against the US dollar over time, albeit perhaps not quite as quickly as they have lately. 21st August 2024 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Update The outlook for the US dollar as Fed cuts approach With the Fed set to finally start loosening policy and a soft landing still looking like the most probable outcome for the US economy, we think unfavourable rate differentials and continued robust... 21st August 2024 · 4 mins read
Asia Rapid Response BI hints at rate cuts in Q4 Bank Indonesia today left its policy rate unchanged at 6.25%, but the central bank’s dovish commentary supports our view that rates will be cut before the end of the year. We expect the central bank... 21st August 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Reviewing the recent round trip in markets Nearly all of the pullback in the S&P 500 since the bout of rotation in the stock market began in the wake of June’s CPI report on 11th July has now been reversed. Admittedly, the same cannot be said... 20th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Mixed outlook for Brazilian financial assets Brazilian assets have generally underperformed other EMs so far this year, but measures of risk premia still appear low to us, especially given concerns over public finances. While bonds may offer... 20th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Strong yen may not keep weighing on Japanese stocks While we expect the yen to rise further this year and next, we think this won’t stop Japanese stocks from making gains, even in local-currency terms. 19th August 2024 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Currency calm restored ahead of Jackson Hole The dollar remains on the backfoot as calm has been restored quickly in financial markets, with this week’s key economic data providing renewed support for the “soft landing” scenario. Next week is... 16th August 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We think a US “soft landing” will let equities take off The relief felt in markets over the past week or so as worries about the US economy have dissipated makes sense to us. So we expect the rebound in equity markets to continue. 16th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Gilt yields and sterling may have further to fall While expectations for interest rates in the UK have already fallen by 40bp by end-2025 since mid-July, our projections for UK CPI inflation to remain below the 2% target for much of 2025 and 2026... 15th August 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update What to make of the market summer squall Conditions have stabilised after a turbulent few weeks in financial markets, and we expect the rebound in equity markets over the past week or so to continue. Our assessment is that the market fallout... 15th August 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Assessing the outlook for China’s stocks and bonds We think there is better news on China’s economy in the pipeline that could underpin a rally in its lowly valued stock market. But in our view there is less scope for gains in China’s bonds. 15th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Has inflation optimism gone too far? The muted reaction to today’s US CPI data reflects that most investors already expected inflation to fall to around 2% before long and remain there. But last week’s turmoil highlighted that when... 14th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily How vulnerable are US equities to a recession? The further rally in stock markets today leaves both valuations and earnings looking consistent with a “soft landing” in the US. So it would not take much for equities to struggle if the economy were... 13th August 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily A yen for stability While a big reduction in speculative positioning against the Japanese currency may mean that future moves in global financial markets will be less extreme than recent ones, it doesn’t preclude more... 12th August 2024 · 4 mins read
