Chief Economist's Note US economic dominance is here to stay - but it won’t translate into sustained stock market outperformance A persistent feature of the post-pandemic age has been the relative strength of the US economy and equities market. But past performance is no guarantee of future results. Will the US continue to... 17th June 2024
Event Europe Drop-In: French political turmoil and macro/market spillover risks 1718805600 Emmanuel Macron’s decision to call a snap legislative election has triggered turmoil in French politics that is spilling into its financial markets.
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar ends rollercoaster week a touch stronger The US dollar has been taken on a rollercoaster ride this week. The US CPI and PPI reports for May have suggested that price pressures are gradually easing. These somewhat promising data reports have... 14th June 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily A poor week for French bonds and equities French government bonds and equities have sold off this week, and the euro has weakened. A lot of bad news now seems priced in, but we suspect the discount on French assets is here to stay. 14th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Political uncertainty might push French OAT yields even higher The 10-year yield spread between government bonds in France and Germany has risen above 80bp, its highest since the euro-zone debt crisis. Should the far-right National Rally be in a position to form... 14th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Treasury yields may not push JGB ones down further Although falling Treasury yields may continue to exert some downward pressure on Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields, we don’t think that will drive them much lower by the end of the year. 13th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Why we think the 10-year Treasury yield will fall further We are retaining our forecast that the 10-year Treasury yield will fall to 4.0% by the end of this year. That reflects our expectation that the Fed will pursue a slightly looser conventional monetary... 13th June 2024 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus FX scarcity: will the pain point ease? The authorities in several major emerging markets, including Egypt, Argentina and Nigeria, have taken important policy steps recently that may allow them to ease restrictions on access to foreign... 13th June 2024 · 20 mins read
Asset Allocation Update UK Equities may underperform regardless of the election We doubt the outcome of the UK’s general election will have a big impact on UK equities in general. Nonetheless, we still expect them to continue to underperform US equities. 13th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We see a bit more room down for Treasury yields Today’s release of the US CPI data for May offered some respite in markets after last Friday’s stronger-than-expected May payrolls data. On balance, we continue to anticipate that the Fed will... 12th June 2024 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Focus The euro could stay lower for longer Although the EUR/USD exchange rate is not far above multi-decade lows, we think structural factors mean that the euro is close to “fair value” relative to the US dollar and most other major currencies... 12th June 2024 · 14 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Property values on course to fall by more than 25% The market remains in the doldrums, with the mood negative and activity weak. We think this summer could be the bottom for transactions, but we still see valuations needing to fall by another 12% from... 11th June 2024 · 21 mins read
Capital Daily Is it too late for China’s tech stocks to join the party? We think that China’s “tech” equities could resume their rally, but that they’re unlikely to see anything like the gains their developed market peers have. 11th June 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jun. 2024) Net capital inflows into EMs have climbed back into positive territory in recent weeks, driven by a sharp rise in foreign investors’ purchases of Turkish government debt. This strength could continue... 11th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Political uncertainty in France unnerves markets French President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to call for snap elections has triggered a negative reaction in markets, not only in France but also in the rest of the EU. Even though the far-right... 10th June 2024 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Commodity-exposed stock markets may disappoint Although we expect equities in general to fare well over the next year or so, we think that falls in most commodity prices will weigh on the energy and materials sectors. That would be bad news for... 10th June 2024 · 4 mins read
