Frontier Markets Wrap Sovereign bond spreads: from too high to too low? The sharp drop in frontier market sovereign dollar bond spreads this year has caught many by surprise. We think there’s a case that the bond rally may have gone too far in Argentina, Ecuador and... 24th May 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Smaller and slower falls in inflation and interest rates We still think inflation will fall faster than the Bank of England is expecting, but in the light of April’s CPI release we now expect the downward trend to be slower and smaller. As a result, we have... 23rd May 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily A Labour government probably wouldn’t roil UK markets While the prospect of the Labour Party returning to government in the UK for the first time in 14 years might raise a few eyebrows in the financial markets, we wouldn’t put much store by the fact that... 23rd May 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Corporate credit spreads may end the year near extreme levels Corporate credit spreads have been near historical lows in recent weeks, and we think they will remain close to these levels in the coming months. 23rd May 2024 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Spillovers from the rally in Chinese equities We think equities in the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region may benefit most from improving sentiment towards China in the near term. But we think that economic / market exposures to the AI revolution, not to... 23rd May 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Worst may not be over yet for South African financial assets Having underperformed most other EMs since the pandemic, we think that returns of financial assets in South Africa will continue to disappoint. The outlook would worsen if the African National... 23rd May 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Gilt yields: higher for only a little bit longer? While stronger-than-expected inflation data from the UK have led us to push back a bit our forecast for the start of the Bank of England’s easing cycle, we still project many more rate cuts than most... 22nd May 2024 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Chart Pack US Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q2 24) Weak investment activity and continuing cap rate rises in Q1 fit with our view for another tough year for real estate. All-property values are now down by 17% from their mid-2022 peaks. But we still... 22nd May 2024 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack (May 2024) Our Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The latest data indicate that capacity pressures have continued to ease, a trend... 22nd May 2024 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s bumper trade surplus set to shrink The sharp rise in Brazil’s goods exports and the widening of the trade surplus since 2019 have been a point of strength for the economy. But we think these will reverse course before long. This feeds... 21st May 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We think rate expectations will drive yields down this year Despite the hawkish rhetoric from central bankers over the last few days, we still expect long-dated government bond yields in most developed markets to fall over the next year or so. 21st May 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily US equity outperformance may not help to revive the dollar The US dollar has been on the back foot amid the renewed rally in “risky” assets. While we think US stocks will soon re-establish the lead among global equities, we doubt US equity outperformance... 20th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (May 2024) Aggregate EM GDP growth will enter a slower phase over the coming quarters. But the headline figure masks large variation in prospects at the country level, with many EMs experiencing a reversal of... 20th May 2024 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (May 2024) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. While the economy has only narrowly avoided a recession, activity should rebound over coming... 20th May 2024 · 1 min read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar softens on inflation relief The US dollar has eased back in the wake of somewhat better news on US inflation this week, which has seen US interest rate expectations fall back a bit further. Between this week’s inflation news... 17th May 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Policy sugar rush may only take Chinese equities so far New measures to support China’s property sector have brought more cheer to Chinese equities. But, while we continue to think they will fare well in the coming months, we ultimately expect them to lose... 17th May 2024 · 5 mins read
