Filtered by Topic: Global economic fracturing Use setting Global economic fracturing
The US would have to exert a lot of pressure to coerce most major countries into putting large tariffs on goods from China . Curtailing trade with China would have an economic cost and even countries that have closer economic ties with the US would still …
31st March 2025
China’s presence in Latin America is increasingly seen as a strategic threat by the US. This Focus uses interactive charts to map out economic, financial and institutional linkages between China and Latin America. While ties have expanded dramatically …
19th March 2025
The events of the past two weeks have called into question whether the US is severing ties not just with adversaries such as China but also allies, including Canada, Mexico and the European Union. This would radically alter the shape of the fractured …
4th March 2025
President Trump’s attempts to reset relations with Russia have led some to suggest that he may be attempting to break apart the Sino-Russian alliance as Nixon did in the early 1970s (although in Nixon’s case, by reaching out to China). But while this may …
27th February 2025
This Update answers some key questions on the recently agreed US-Ukraine minerals deal. In short, estimates of Ukraine’s mineral wealth seem to be overblown and the deal suggests that US support for Ukraine under Trump is likely to come with strings …
26th February 2025
Following yesterday’s federal election in Germany, this Update answers questions raised by clients in our on-line briefing (which can be viewed here ). What are the key takeaways from the election itself? The CDU’s leader, Friedrich Merz will be the next …
24th February 2025
Ernest Hemingway’s line about bankruptcy happening “gradually, then suddenly” can apply to the geopolitical mood too. The head-spinning recent turn of events around Trump and Putin, the war in Ukraine and the future of European security has seen …
It's been an extraordinary week in geopolitics, with direct US-Russia talks, a war of words between Washington and Kyiv and Europe swept by fears about the end of the US security backstop. But how much has really changed? Group Chief Economist Neil …
21st February 2025
Whereas political pushback against the cost of climate action is hindering policy in North America and Europe, the tailwinds from China’s low-cost green technology exports are becoming more concentrated in emerging markets more aligned with China. The …
19th February 2025
President Ramaphosa used his State of the Nation Address (SONA) yesterday to recommit to fiscal discipline and investment-led growth. The rebuke of the US in his speech was noticeable, suggesting Trump’s recent actions could act to push South Africa …
7th February 2025
Donald Trump has sent shockwaves through European corridors of power with his moves to re-engage with Vladimir Putin, his efforts to end the war in Ukraine, and his threats to withdraw the US as the backstop of the continent’s security. But how much of …
20th February 2025
Imagine a world after Donald Trump. The returned president’s rapidly unfolding policy agenda will have bearing on the US and global economies in the near-term. But could forces like shifting demographics and AI play a greater role in shaping long-term …
18th February 2025
China’s surging exports have been gaining international attention, but concerns about overcapacity have focussed on “strategic sectors”. Far less acknowledged is the fact that China has been gaining significant global export market share across the board, …
22nd January 2025
Biden's final export control crackdown In the final days of his administration, Biden has (yet again) ramped up US export controls in a bid to slow China’s development of advanced AI. The new Interim Final Rule on Artificial Intelligence Diffusion …
17th January 2025
The Shape of the Fractured World in 2025 The share of the fracturing global economy that is accounted for by China and its geopolitical allies contracted in 2024, leaving it under a third the size of the US bloc at the start of 2025. This fall was in part …
Mexico is arguably the most vulnerable economy to US trade protectionism. This in-depth analysis maps out economic and financial linkages between Mexico and its northern neighbour to provide a clearer sense of how tariffs would affect the economy and how …
15th January 2025
If Donald Trump were to impose a universal 10% tariff on US imports, we wouldn’t expect widespread reshoring of manufacturing production back to the US. And if it were accompanied by a 60% tariff on Chinese imports, the main beneficiaries would be other …
14th January 2025
The Cold War was defined by geopolitical blocs – the Soviet or Eastern bloc against the Western bloc. Geopolitics retreated with the collapse of the Soviet Union. The period from the early-1990s to the early-2010s was instead an era of globalisation: most …
7th January 2025
Donald Trump’s second term could redraw the global geopolitical map. A sustainable “Grand Bargain” with China, warmer relations with Russia, or a breakdown in the relationship between the US and its traditional allies could each reshape supply chains and …
Syria’s rebel advance tests MENA’s geopolitics Over the past week, Syrian rebel forces have retaken significant amounts of territory from President Bashar al-Assad’s regime with little resistance so far. It’s unclear whether the rebels will make further …
5th December 2024
One of the many problems that the next German government will have to contend with is the struggling car sector. Unfortunately, the sector’s challenges are only likely to intensify given the prospect of sluggish European demand, rising competition from …
27th November 2024
Egypt’s policy agenda shifts to long term reforms With Egypt’s macroeconomic stability restored, officials are starting to turn their attention to longer term reforms and number one on the list appears to be reinvigorating the stalled privatisation drive. …
21st November 2024
I was visiting clients in the US last week, where the mood felt very different from Trump’s first election victory in 2016 (and when, incidentally, I was living and working in New York). Then, the overriding mood was one of shock. Today, there is less …
18th November 2024
Exporters could do even better in the near-term We published our initial thoughts on the impact of a second Trump presidency on China’s economy here . Counter-intuitively, perhaps, we concluded that there would be initial upside for exporters, as US firms …
8th November 2024
Donald Trump’s second presidency is likely to result in lower US GDP growth, faster US inflation and a slightly higher path for the fed funds rate. The implications for the rest of the world are highly uncertain, not least because it is unclear how many …
6th November 2024
The US election next week is likely to have major ramifications for geopolitical ties, trade, and financial markets in the MENA region. (All our analysis on the impact of the US election on EMs can be found on our dedicated webpage here .) Attention in …
31st October 2024
The past week has been one of the more eventful for India in recent memory on the geopolitical front. The most eye-catching development was an agreement with China on patrolling arrangements along their disputed border in the Himalayas. News of the …
25th October 2024
Al-Sisi demands review with IMF Comments from Egypt’s President al-Sisi over the past week pushing back against the pace of reforms under the current IMF deal has alarmed investors a little, but the bigger picture is that Egypt’s economy is in a far …
24th October 2024
Uruguay‘s election on Sunday is unlikely to change the path of economic policy but will have big implications for relations with China. Arguably more important than the election itself is the outcome of the pension referendum taking place at the same time …
23rd October 2024
BRICS+ to meet with a notable absentee Next week’s BRICS+ summit in Russia is likely to focus on the group’s further expansion after Egypt and the UAE (along with several other countries) joined last year. Notably, however, Saudi Arabia – which was also …
17th October 2024
The BRICS+ summit in Russia next week is likely to see another push on expansion, mainly to close allies of China and Russia. But limited economic benefits for potential new members, divisions among existing members, and concerns (for some) about …
15th October 2024
Latin America has played an important role in absorbing China’s export surge, which is generating concern among local policymakers. But the response is likely to vary across the region. Governments in Mexico and some smaller Central American countries …
A further decoupling of trade ties between the US and China or a sharp rise in Cross-Strait tensions, even if a full-blown conflict is avoided, are two big geopolitical events that we think present a big risk to the health of the “AI bubble” in the US …
11th October 2024
Access to commodities – particularly critical minerals – is a growing area of competition between China and the West. And those EMs with deposits of the minerals used in new and low-carbon technologies are likely to see higher investment and, ultimately, …
3rd October 2024
In the months ahead, there are five themes to watch for in the world of trade and shipping, the most immediate of which is the risk of strikes at US East and Gulf coast ports in October. The upshot is that, after a nascent recovery in the first half of …
19th September 2024
The US is moving to limit the de minimis tariff exemption that has supported a surge in low value shipments from China over recent years. Only a subset of the roughly 8% of China’s exports to the US that are currently tariff-exempt would be at risk under …
13th September 2024
A second Trump term would bring greater uncertainty to US-China relations, challenges to a global economic order that has helped China prosper, higher tariffs (probably) on Chinese goods, and (possibly) a global retreat from free trade. All of this would …
12th September 2024
The new US controls on exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment will slow China’s ability to expand its advanced chip-making capacity. While the immediate economic impact will be small, it will leave China’s hi-tech industry reliant on foreign …
9th September 2024
Attention at the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation that started today in Beijing will be on the extent to which China can stave off competition from the US to strengthen ties with the region. Relations with China are, for the most part, likely to remain …
4th September 2024
Several advanced economies have raised tariffs on imports of green technologies and semiconductors from China to address their growing trade deficits in these goods and tackle a perceived strategic weakness. As long as the process is gradual, this …
3rd September 2024
Chinese equities tumbled on Monday, and while we see scope for them to recover a bit in the coming months, we are quite pessimistic about their medium-to-long term prospects. Chinese stocks had a bad start to the month. US equities rose on Friday, which …
2nd September 2024
On the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics , Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Stephen Brown, our Deputy Chief North America Economist, give their take on what Jerome Powell said to the Fed’s annual gathering at Jackson …
23rd August 2024
Although the EU is making progress in expanding its semiconductor production capacity, including through a new plant in Dresden, it is still a long way behind the US and Asia and is unlikely to catch up anytime soon. This will keep the EU reliant on …
China’s announcement last week that it would curb exports of antimony, a critical mineral, was another example of global fracturing unfolding in the commodities arena. Recycling offers an obvious way for the US and its allies to shore up their own …
21st August 2024
The renewed widening of global imbalances has become another faultline in the fracturing of the world economy, and will continue to provoke trade barriers in the coming decades. With overall imbalances most prominent in the US, further tariffs aimed at …
14th August 2024
Signs of a thaw in frosty relations between India and China don’t point to a fundamental realignment in India’s position in a fracturing global economy. But they highlight a growing theme of some EMs tactically courting investment from China to put …
13th August 2024
We will discuss our latest EM Financial Risk Monitor in a Drop-In next Thursday. Register here for the 20-minute online briefing. By hook or by crook The declaration that incumbent Nicolás Maduro won Venezuela’s presidential election was met with …
2nd August 2024
Trump sets out his stall for warmer Saudi ties Donald Trump has outlined his intentions to improve relations with Saudi Arabia if he wins re-election. But potential tensions over the handling of the Israel-Gaza conflict mean that, for now, Saudi officials …
18th July 2024
Exports from Taiwan, Korea and Vietnam have surged over the past 18 months, thanks to strong demand for AI-related products and friendshoring. In contrast, shipments from the rest of the region have struggled. We expect this divergence to continue over …
10th July 2024
