A second Trump term would bring greater uncertainty to US-China relations, challenges to a global economic order that has helped China prosper, higher tariffs (probably) on Chinese goods, and (possibly) a global retreat from free trade. All of this would worry China’s leadership and undermine China’s growth prospects in the near-term. But Trump’s return would probably also splinter the coalition of allies that the US has assembled during the Biden presidency, making US efforts to constrain China less effective. If Kamala Harris as president kept allies onside, China would probably be more constricted economically over the medium term.
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