Filtered by Topic: Geoeconomics Use setting Geoeconomics
Israel’s economy has frequently bounced back from conflict throughout its history, but developments over the past week have raised the risk of permanent scarring to the economy from the ongoing hostilities across the Middle East. The latest ratcheting up …
4th October 2024
Risk premium takes the reins There are no prizes for guessing the main event of the week in commodity markets: the stark rise in the oil price since Tuesday after it became clear that Iran was readying to launch a missile strike on Israel has dominated …
Is the US facing a hard landing, a soft landing or no landing? Have stimulus announcements fundamentally changed the China equities story? How should investors trade risks around the US election? Raymond James CIO Larry Adam joins Group Chief Economist …
It’s too soon to say whether the Iranian missile strikes on Israel are the start of a conflict that will eventually result in oil supply being affected or if oil prices will drop back as the heightened risk premium in prices gradually unwinds. For now, we …
3rd October 2024
Global headlines this week have been dominated by the escalating conflict in the Middle East and attention is now focussed on Israel and the scale and nature of its response to Iran’s retaliatory attack on Tuesday. From a macro perspective, the key risk …
Until the geopolitical situation in the Middle East deescalates, oil prices will clearly remain at risk of spiking higher. But against a backdrop of faltering demand and greater supply in the wider oil market, the risks to oil prices over the next year …
2nd October 2024
In the wake of Iran’s missile strike on Israel on Tuesday, Deputy Chief EM Economist Jason Tuvey and David Oxley, our Chief Commodities and Climate Economist, talk about implications for the global oil market, including: What an Israeli retaliation …
Fiscal risks in Romania continue to build Romania’s fiscal watchdog this week warned that the country’s budget deficit could come in at 8.0% of GDP this year. This is significantly above the government’s original target of 5.0% and also above its new …
27th September 2024
Is Saudi set to reverse its oil policy? Reports have emerged that officials in Saudi Arabia are set to change tack and raise oil output to recapture lost market share, rather than try to prop up prices. Higher oil output will, mechanically, result in …
26th September 2024
Storm Boris floods Central Europe The flooding in Central Europe over the past week has been described as the worst in the region in the last two decades and our thoughts are with those affected. The most heavily impacted areas have been in Poland, …
20th September 2024
In the months ahead, there are five themes to watch for in the world of trade and shipping, the most immediate of which is the risk of strikes at US East and Gulf coast ports in October. The upshot is that, after a nascent recovery in the first half of …
19th September 2024
A second Trump term would bring greater uncertainty to US-China relations, challenges to a global economic order that has helped China prosper, higher tariffs (probably) on Chinese goods, and (possibly) a global retreat from free trade. All of this would …
12th September 2024
Note: we will be hosting an online Drop-in on Wednesday 11th September at 3pm BST to discuss the outlook for gold prices. Sign up here . With a long and varied list of supportive drivers to choose from, we have raised our end-2025 gold price forecast to …
10th September 2024
The new US controls on exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment will slow China’s ability to expand its advanced chip-making capacity. While the immediate economic impact will be small, it will leave China’s hi-tech industry reliant on foreign …
9th September 2024
SA GDP rebounds in Q2, surveys muddy the water Data released this week showed that South Africa’s economy picked up in Q2 and, while August’s manufacturing PMI painted a downbeat picture, other key surveys released this week were more positive. On …
6th September 2024
OPEC+ to face stick or twist moment at next meeting The recent slide in oil prices, to a 14-month low of $73pb at the time of writing, makes the looming OPEC+ decision on whether to unwind its voluntary production cuts even more of a close call. On the …
5th September 2024
We held online Drop-In sessions earlier this week to discuss the outlook for major DM and EM economies and the risks that they face as we look forward to 2025. (See a recording here .) This Update answers some of the questions that we received, including …
Attention at the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation that started today in Beijing will be on the extent to which China can stave off competition from the US to strengthen ties with the region. Relations with China are, for the most part, likely to remain …
4th September 2024
Traditional gold drivers pick up the reins Much of the chatter in the gold market this year has been about the role of non-traditional drivers – particularly demand from China – in propelling the gold price higher. (Our latest Commodities Focus , …
30th August 2024
Further signs of fiscal complacency in Poland The Polish government’s draft budget for 2025 announced this week suggests that fiscal policy will be more expansionary than we had previously expected next year. While that poses an upside risk to our …
Libya’s oil shutdown could influence OPEC+ The oil market was rocked by two political shocks in the past week: an exchange of missiles between Israel and Hezbollah and a crisis in Libya, which led to cuts to its oil output. At the margin, the loss of …
29th August 2024
On the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics , Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Stephen Brown, our Deputy Chief North America Economist, give their take on what Jerome Powell said to the Fed’s annual gathering at Jackson …
23rd August 2024
Ukraine’s surprise incursion Ukraine’s incursion into Russia continued this week. Ukraine found a weak spot in Russian defences two weeks ago and mobilised resources to exploit it. The scale of the incursion is significant, with some suggesting that …
China’s announcement last week that it would curb exports of antimony, a critical mineral, was another example of global fracturing unfolding in the commodities arena. Recycling offers an obvious way for the US and its allies to shore up their own …
21st August 2024
After a summer of extraordinary economic, market and political developments, what can investors expect through the end of 2024? Our senior economists held this special briefing all about the risks we’re watching in the final months of the year. During …
20th August 2024
The global macroeconomic risks surrounding a possible ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas are asymmetric. An agreement – while having significant economic consequences for countries in the region – would probably not itself be a game-changer for …
19th August 2024
Israel’s economy slowed more than expected in Q2 as weak investment and supply constraints continued to hold back activity. A ceasefire to halt the conflict in Gaza would clearly be positive for the near-term growth outlook, but we doubt the economy would …
The renewed widening of global imbalances has become another faultline in the fracturing of the world economy, and will continue to provoke trade barriers in the coming decades. With overall imbalances most prominent in the US, further tariffs aimed at …
14th August 2024
Jordan’s economy has been among the hardest hit from the indirect spillovers of the war in Gaza. While severe balance of payments of strains are likely to be avoided, GDP growth will suffer as the key tourism sector has taken the brunt of the impact. And …
Signs of a thaw in frosty relations between India and China don’t point to a fundamental realignment in India’s position in a fracturing global economy. But they highlight a growing theme of some EMs tactically courting investment from China to put …
13th August 2024
Developments in Ukraine have once again emerged as a key driver of EU natural gas prices. But a combination of lower gas use and the sourcing of alternative supplies in Europe means that the situation is very different to that during the energy crisis. …
12th August 2024
The economic data have softened, corporate executives are sounding the alarm over slowing sales, and policymakers are signalling that they will provide more support to the economy. This is not the US but China. Yet mounting concerns about the growth …
It was no surprise to see the global commodity price index fall and rise alongside the contortions in equity markets this week. But commodity prices have not all been in the same boat ; whereas some have remained buoyant throughout, others were already …
9th August 2024
We will be holding a Drop-In next Thursday at 15.00 BST discussing financial risk across the EM world. Register for the 20-minute online briefing here . Tensions in the Middle East rising after Israeli strikes The rocket strike on the Israeli-occupied …
2nd August 2024
Regional tensions rise after Israel strikes Israel’s assassination of high-ranking Hezbollah and Hamas officials this week in retaliation for the rocket strike on Israeli-occupied Golan Heights has left tensions on the brink of boiling over. An aggressive …
1st August 2024
The rocket strike on the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights over the weekend has heightened fears of a full-blown conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. For Israel, this risks adding to pressure on its already strained public finances, and would …
29th July 2024
Donald Trump has said that he could quickly end the war in Ukraine if he is re-elected as US President. This Focus answers key questions on what the shape of any agreement might look like, what might happen to sanctions on Russia, and the possible …
23rd July 2024
Donald Trump says he can end the war in Ukraine in a day if he’s re-elected this November. What are the implications for economies and markets if he wins in November and makes good on his pledge to bring the two-and-a-half year old conflict to a …
19th July 2024
Trump sets out his stall for warmer Saudi ties Donald Trump has outlined his intentions to improve relations with Saudi Arabia if he wins re-election. But potential tensions over the handling of the Israel-Gaza conflict mean that, for now, Saudi officials …
18th July 2024
Full Budget a key test for new government The Finance Ministry confirmed this week that the full Union Budget for FY24/25 will be unveiled on Tuesday, 23 rd July (recall that during election years, an “interim” Budget is held in February). We’ll be …
12th July 2024
Final preparations are reportedly in place for Prime Minister Modi to travel to Moscow early next week to meet his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin. This will be Modi’s first trip to Russia since the invasion of Ukraine, though the two leaders did meet …
5th July 2024
A facelift for Egypt’s cabinet, but no shift in policy Egypt’s cabinet was shaken up this week but the new faces are highly unlikely to diverge from the economic policy path their predecessors were on, particularly when it comes to the public finances. …
4th July 2024
Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s (MbS) ultimate succession to become king is inevitable and a formality. Having been the de-facto leader of the Kingdom for several years it may not result in much of a deviation in economic policymaking. …
1st July 2024
This page brings together our analysis of how Donald Trump's return to the White House will affect the outlook for emerging economies. Use the Table of Contents on the right to navigate. All of our analysis on the election, including the implications for …
28th June 2024
A return of President Trump to the White House would be a shot across the bows for global efforts to reduce emissions – particularly as he would almost certainly withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement again . But while he could deal another blow to the …
25th June 2024
Lebanon on verge of being drawn into the war Skirmishes between Hezbollah and Israeli forces have intensified, culminating in Israel’s approval of an “offensive” into Lebanon this week. Not only does this threaten to exacerbate Lebanon’s prolonged …
20th June 2024
Still a bright future in Europe China protested the European Commission’s (EC) imposition of additional tariffs on Chinese-made EVs this week but, if the EU goes no further, China’s government is likely to see this as a good outcome. The European tariffs, …
14th June 2024
An interactive guide to the future of global macro and markets leadership. This content was last updated on 10th June 2024. If you have subscriber access to the data underlying this dashboard, you can download it via the menu options in the top right …
Will the US continue to dominate the global economy in the coming years? Will China or Europe ever catch up? Is the US where investors will continue to see stronger stock market returns? The question of US outperformance runs to the heart of the global …
7th June 2024
In the coming years, we expect Europe to raise barriers to trade and investment with China but to do so in a targeted and gradual manner. If so, there would be big implications for some sectors, including electric vehicles and renewable technologies, but …
