This report was originally published on 14th November 2024.
President Trump’s decision to impose tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China raises the risk that at some point the UK will also be subject to US tariffs. This UK Update, which was first published in November, explains why the UK is not as exposed as many other economies and why we suspect any resulting reduction in UK GDP would be small. This does, however, raise the age-old question of whether the UK wants to be closer to the US or closer to the EU. That’s a very timely question given the Prime Minister’s trip to Brussels this week and his plans for an EU reset.
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