This week's labour market data and Summary of Deliberations from the Bank of Canada's October policy meeting were both overshadowed by Trump's win in the US election given its potential impact on the USMCA. If Trump decided to fully withdraw from the agreement and impose a 10% universal tariff on Canadian imports, likely prompting a retaliatory response, we judge the hit to GDP would be at least 1%. The Bank of Canada would also have to put up with a period of higher inflation.
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