Filtered by Subscriptions: US Housing Use setting US Housing
The strong monthly rise in house prices reported by Case-Shiller for September is not a sign that house price growth is accelerating. Indeed, weakening buyer sentiment and house price expectations suggest that annual house price growth will soon flatten …
28th November 2017
Following a large jump in September, new home sales surprised on the upside again in October with a gain of 6.2% m/m pushing sales to a 10-year high. But that boost to activity has weighed on inventory levels, with the months’ supply of new homes for sale …
27th November 2017
The first report on mortgage delinquencies since the September hurricanes shows a large rise in payment problems in both Texas and Florida. But we suspect that primarily represents borrowers who could not work that month taking advantage of lender …
21st November 2017
Existing home sales rose for the second month in a row in October, with a larger than expected gain of 2.0% m/m. But that rise has only worsened what was an already very low level of inventory. With home buyer sentiment dropping to a six-year low in …
After falling for three months in a row, the 13.7% m/m rise in housing starts in October is welcome news. Admittedly, much of the rise was driven by the very volatile multifamily sector, which is unlikely to be sustained. But single-family starts are also …
17th November 2017
Smaller down payments and rising debt-to-income ratios might be an indication that mortgage lending standards are once again being relaxed to dangerous levels. But the Ability to Repay rule is restricting access to such loans to buyers with high credit …
15th November 2017
The rise in annual house price growth to a three-year high of 6.1% in August raises the prospect that our forecast for a 6% gain by the end of the year will prove too conservative. But, with credit conditions tight, mortgage applications falling and house …
13th November 2017
Mortgage interest rate are rising gradually which, coupled with a lack of inventory, has meant mortgage applications for home purchase resumed their downward trend in October. That implies home sales will struggle to gain momentum over the next few …
8th November 2017
Annual house price inflation came in at 7% in September according to CoreLogic, as tight market conditions put further upward pressure on home values. However, higher mortgage interest rates, falling mortgage applications and tight credit conditions all …
7th November 2017
The tax bill released today halved the size of new mortgages from which interest can be deducted, from $1 million to $500,000. That will hit prices of homes valued at over $500,000, and the grandfathering of the existing deduction will also reduce …
2nd November 2017
A rise in mortgage interest rates led to a drop in applications for refinance in October, and low inventory levels are continuing to hit demand for purchase applications. As a result, total mortgage applications have dropped to their lowest level for six …
1st November 2017
The marginal dip in the seasonally-adjusted homeownership rate in the third quarter is another indication of the impact of low inventory on the housing market. Indeed, the homeowner vacancy remains close to a 17-year low. But frustrated first-time buyers …
31st October 2017
Case-Shiller reported that annual house price growth exceeded 6% for the first time in over three years in August, even as mortgage applications for home purchase have edged down. Prices are being driven up by the lack of homes for sale. Yet without an …
New home sales surged by 19% m/m in September to close to a 10-year high. However, this follows two months of subdued data, meaning that sales across Q3 were broadly unchanged from Q2. … New Home Sales …
25th October 2017
Concerns that the US will withdraw from NAFTA has led to a jump in the price of lumber. Prices are now at a 4½ year high. However given that lumber accounts for a relatively small share of overall construction costs, on its own that development will have …
24th October 2017
Existing home sales posted a modest month-on-month gain in September, ending a run of three consecutive monthly falls. But that rise would need to be extended for several months before it altered the picture of a market which is still struggling for …
20th October 2017
Housing starts continued their disappointing run in September, contracting for the third month in a row to leave them at their lowest level for a year. Hurricanes Harvey and Irma look to have had some impact in the South, but all regions bar the West saw …
18th October 2017
The average floor area of new homes has been shrinking over the past 18-months. Smaller lot sizes may be partly responsible. But we suspect the key driver is increased construction and land costs which, combined with tight credit conditions, have forced …
13th October 2017
House price growth is at a three-year high but, given how tight market conditions are, experience suggests they should be rising even faster. Cautious home appraisals and tight credit conditions are helping keep a lid on house prices, as is the fact that …
10th October 2017
Housing starts have stalled over the past year, there has been no increase in the number of homes listed and inventory levels have fallen to record lows. That is constraining housing market activity, and putting upward pressure on house prices. There …
4th October 2017
Following two months of declines, mortgage applications for home purchase rose by a marginal 2.0% m/m in September. But that rise reflected buyers bringing applications forward at the start of the month before interest rates rose, rather than an …
The August CoreLogic house price index shows that house prices are continuing to come under upward pressure. A robust 0.8% m/m gain pushed the annual rate to a three-year high. Given how tight market conditions are, experience points to growth rising to …
3rd October 2017
The slowdown in construction employment and earnings growth looks, at first glance, to be inconsistent with builders’ growing complaints about labour shortages. But with job openings rising, and house price growth relatively low given the lack of …
29th September 2017
Despite a relatively healthy supply of new homes for sale, sales surprised on the downside in August, falling by 3.4% m/m. But even with home sales falling, overall conditions in the housing market are still very tight. That is helping to drive house …
26th September 2017
Existing home sales saw a 1.7% m/m drop in August, the third month in a row of falling sales. As has been the case for some time, a lack homes for sale was the cause of the drop. Despite a rise in the number of households who see now as a good time to …
20th September 2017
Housing starts failed to make any progress in August, dropping by 0.8% m/m. Admittedly, the decline was driven by the volatile multifamily sector. But the building permit data also show that single-family construction has stalled since the end of last …
19th September 2017
A comparison of median new home prices to median household income implies that housing valuations are at levels which could foreshadow a price correction. But we put more faith in valuation measures based on existing home prices and earnings. These show …
15th September 2017
Despite damaging around half a million homes, Hurricane Katrina had no discernible impact on home sales or housing starts in the South compared to other regions. Accordingly, we are not expecting a large impact on housing market activity from Hurricanes …
12th September 2017
Concerns that Hurricane Harvey will lead to a surge in mortgage delinquencies look over done. Houston has one of the highest levels of home equity in the country, which will persuade many mortgage borrowers that it is worthwhile keeping up payments. …
8th September 2017
Mortgage rates declined in each week of August to reach 4.06%, a 10-month low. But while that spurred an 8.8% m/m rise in refinance applications, mortgage applications for home purchase dropped for the second consecutive month. A lack of affordable …
6th September 2017
Falling Treasury yields have pushed down the 30-year mortgage interest rate over the past few weeks. It now sits at its lowest level since early-November. But that drop in interest rates has not led to a rise housing market activity. Indeed, both new and …
5th September 2017
House prices continued to march higher in July according to CoreLogic, with a monthly gain of 0.8% m/m after seasonal adjustment. Tight market conditions are responsible for the steady rise in prices, although relatively strict mortgage lending standards …
It is tempting to link the recent softness in new home sales to builders’ apparent reluctance to up the construction of single-family homes. But with new homes selling very quickly, and a rising share sold even before construction has begun, we doubt the …
31st August 2017
The 5.8% annual gain in house prices reported by Case-Shiller in June was the highest in three-years, as a shortage of inventory boosted prices even as active housing demand has edged back. Tight market conditions will drive house prices higher over the …
29th August 2017
The average monthly mortgage payment has reached a nine-year high at the same time as home sales have stalled, but we doubt the first is causing the second. The fact home sales are being agreed in close to record quick times argues against the idea of a …
24th August 2017
As expected, the lack of homes for sale weighed on existing home sales in July, pushing them down to their lowest level in almost a year. But those homes which are for sale are selling very quickly, indicating robust underlying housing demand. … Existing …
Against expectations of a small rise, new home sales fell by 9.4%m/m in July and saw their first annual decline in 1½ years. But new homes are selling very quickly, which suggests underlying housing demand is still robust. Given the volatile nature of the …
23rd August 2017
Developers have responded quickly to signs that rental vacancy rates in multifamily buildings are edging up, with starts over the past three months reaching their lowest level in four years. That contrasts to what happened during the early 2000s, when …
18th August 2017
Housing starts surprised on the downside in July, with a 4.8% m/m fall pushing starts to a three-month low. The drop was entirely down to the multifamily sector, with single-family starts holding their ground. The failure of single-family starts and …
16th August 2017
The latest data on vacancy rates confirms that housing market conditions are tight. Very low inventory levels pushed the homeowner vacancy rate to a 17-year low in the second quarter. That will support house price growth, which is holding steady at around …
8th August 2017
Mortgage applications fell in July, primarily due to a fall in refinancing. But home purchase applications dropped too, held back by low inventory. So while robust job creation and easing lending standards are supporting demand, we think low inventory …
2nd August 2017
According to Corelogic, annual house price growth rose to 6.7% in June. But while market conditions remain tight, new homes inventory is steadily rising and cautious home appraisals are holding back prices. Consequently, we expect house price growth to …
1st August 2017
In the absence of state-level data on the months’ supply of unsold homes, a comparison of inventory levels in each state to their long-run average has, in the past, proved a reasonable leading indicator for house prices. The latest data show that, with …
31st July 2017
The homeownership rate hit a three year high in the second quarter, as a strong labour market contributed to a gradual rise in the number of first-time buyers. But the fact that the homeowner vacancy rate hit a 17-year low is a reminder that the lack of …
27th July 2017
The marginal 0.8% m/m rise in new home sales in June provides further evidence that sales volumes are struggling to gain momentum despite the fact that new homes are selling at the fastest pace since records began. Higher volumes will require a shift to …
26th July 2017
Case-Shiller reported a marginal easing in monthly house price pressures in May. But that softening reflects problems with the seasonal-adjustment process. Annual growth was unchanged at a robust 5.6% and, with the inventory of homes continuing to …
25th July 2017
Given the very low level of inventory, the 1.8% m/m drop in existing home sales in June was expected. Sales have now made no progress over the past year, even as robust housing demand means those homes that are on the market are selling at a record pace. …
24th July 2017
Even with a strong dollar pushing up the price of US homes for most foreign buyers, in the year to March non-resident buyers increased their spending on residential property by 72%. We suspect fears that buying a US home were set to become harder is …
20th July 2017
Housing starts surprised on the upside in June, with the 8.3% m/m increase breaking a three-month run of declines. While rising material prices dented homebuilder confidence in July, very tight market conditions will help single-family starts to rise …
19th July 2017
Experience suggests that with housing market conditions so tight, house prices should be rising considerably faster than their current rate of around 6% y/y. One reason why they are not may be that cautious home appraisals are limiting the degree to which …
14th July 2017
