Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (September 2024) Euro-zone retail sales rose in September rounding off a good quarter for retailers. We suspect that sales will continue to increase, but only slowly as overall consumption growth is likely to remain... 7th November 2024 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Halifax House Prices (Oct. 2024) October’s 0.2% m/m rise in Halifax house prices suggests that the recent momentum in house prices has a bit further to run. And while the recent rises in swap rates suggest mortgage rates will soon... 7th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Weakness in productivity growth partly structural The recent weakness in productivity growth is only partly due to a cyclical hangover from the pandemic as it also reflects the structural weakness in investment. With investment growth set to remain... 7th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Event Drop-In: Trump's second term - Macro and market implications 1730898000 Our senior economist team were online the day after the election to help clients understand the economic and market implications of what we know so far - and what's still to b
US Housing Market Rapid Response Mortgage Applications (Oct. 2024) Rising borrowing costs snuffed out the nascent recovery in mortgage activity in October, with home purchase and refinancing applications both slumping after a promising end to September. This puts to... 6th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily The return of Trump and the fortunes of the Trump Trade This early edition of the Capital Daily provides our first thoughts on the market reaction to the likelihood of a second Trump term. 6th November 2024 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response US Election The presidential election remains too close to call, but Donald Trump does appear to be edging ahead in some of the key swing states. At close to 11.30pm ET, the NYT gives Trump an 91% chance of... 6th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q3 2024) The modest rise in the unemployment rate last quarter belies the precarity of the jobs market. We still believe the unemployment rate will eventually rise to a peak of 5.6% by end-2025. The dismal... 5th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Nov. 2024) Earlier interest rate cuts are yet to have much effect on the Canadian economy, which remains trapped in a period of below-potential growth. Making matters worse, any boost to the economy from lower... 5th November 2024 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Nov. 2024) The net fiscal loosening of £36bn (1.1% of GDP) in 2029/30 relative to previous plans unveiled by the Chancellor in the Budget means we now expect GDP growth of 1.8% and 1.7% in 2025 and 2026... 5th November 2024 · 1 min read
Canada Rapid Response Canada International Trade (Sep. 2024) The improvement in the goods trade position in September was for all the wrong reasons, with a fall in imports outpacing a decline in exports. While this suggests that net trade provided a small boost... 5th November 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response International Trade (Sep. 2024) The trade deficit widened to $84.4bn in September, from an upwardly revised $70.8bn in August, as imports surged ahead of the short-lived port strike in October. 5th November 2024 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA will start cutting rates early next year Although the Reserve Bank of Australia maintained a broadly neutral stance at its meeting today, we still think it will start to lower interest rates as soon as February next year. However, with the... 5th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs still paint a bleak picture for global industry While the latest PMIs suggest that global industry started Q4 on a slightly better footing, the outlook for the manufacturing sector remains poor, especially in advanced economies. Meanwhile, although... 4th November 2024 · 2 mins read
