Canada Rapid Response Canada Manufacturing Sales & Wholesale Sales (Jan. 2025) The large rises in both manufacturing and wholesale sales volumes at the start of the year suggest that GDP may have done even better than the flash estimate of a 0.3% m/m rise in January, although... 14th March 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Jan. 2025) The 0.1% m/m fall in real GDP in January (consensus +0.1%, CE -0.2%) highlights the weakness of the economy before the full effects of the rise in business taxes and the uncertain global backdrop is... 14th March 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update What to make of the slowdown in core inflation There are good reasons for the BoJ to strip out only fresh food rather than all food from its preferred measure of core inflation. To be sure, the fact that inflation excluding all food and energy has... 14th March 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: Ueda cautious despite strongest pay hikes in 34 years Even though this year’s spring wage negotiations resulted in the largest pay hike since 1991, Bank of Japan Governor Ueda this week sounded worried about developments overseas. That creates risk to... 14th March 2025 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: Ignore Chalmers’ predictions of spending restraint If the Coalition wins the federal election due by May, the fiscal stance that Treasurer Jim Chalmers will unveil in the Budget on 25 th March may end up being supplanted by a more restrictive one... 14th March 2025 · 6 mins read
UK Housing Market Update UK rental demand to cool, but it won’t collapse The surge in rental demand is over, but rental demand will probably remain stronger than pre-pandemic levels. That suggests the prop to rents growth in 2025 and 2026 from solid demand will fade only... 13th March 2025 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook US Commercial Property Outlook: Returns will be weighed down by “new normal” for bond yields Our new forecasts have been compiled in the most uncertain geoeconomic environment for a long time. But our firmly below-consensus expectations for US CRE are led by our view that nearly three years... 13th March 2025 · 20 mins read
BoE Watch BoE Watch: UK MPC not as dovish as March’s vote may suggest The Bank of England will almost certainly leave interest rates at 4.50% at the policy meeting on Thursday 20th March and this might be the second meeting in a row when the vote suggests the Bank is... 13th March 2025 · 6 mins read
US Rapid Response US Producer Prices (Feb. 2025) While final demand and core PPI both surprised to the downside in February, the price increases in the components which matter for the PCE deflator were on the whole hotter than we had anticipated. As... 13th March 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update UK RICS Residential Market Survey (Feb. 2025) February’s RICS survey suggests the downside risks to our 2025 forecasts for housing demand and prices from the weak economy continue to grow. But bigger falls in mortgage rates than most expect over... 13th March 2025 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update BoC warns it must protect against tariff-induced inflation Although the Bank of Canada cut interest rates by 25bp again today, it also warned that “monetary policy cannot offset the impacts of a trade war” and that it must guard against tariff-related rises... 12th March 2025 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Bank of Canada Policy Announcement (Mar. 2025) Although the Bank of Canada cut interest rates by 25bp again today, it also warned that “monetary policy cannot offset the impacts of a trade war” and that it must guard against tariff-related rises... 12th March 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Consumer Prices (Feb. 2025) The softer 0.23% m/m rise in core CPI in February is not as encouraging at it looks, as the components which feed into the Fed’s preferred PCE price index rose more sharply. While it will depend a lot... 12th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Case for further BoJ tightening continues to strengthen The Bank of Japan will keep policy settings unchanged at its upcoming meeting that ends on 19 th March. But with inflation set to overshoot the Bank’s forecasts, we expect the Bank to hike rates again... 12th March 2025 · 7 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Mar. 2025) Our Canada Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The imposition of US tariffs and risk of more to come will weigh on exports, consumer confidence... 11th March 2025 · 1 min read
US Economics Update JOLTS data healthy prior to DOGE purge While January’s JOLTS report was not much to shout about, timelier labour market data suggest conditions look set to worsen amid DOGE’s gutting of the federal workforce. We remain optimistic for now... 11th March 2025 · 2 mins read
