Capital Daily What to make of US households’ appetite for equities US households’ appetite for equities often depends on how confident they feel. Its strength in recent years is therefore rather surprising, given that their mood hasn’t been upbeat. Sentiment did perk... 13th September 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly The fine line between delivering fiscal prudence and growth The Office for Budget Responsibility’s “Fiscal risks and sustainability report" showed that if left unchecked the public debt to GDP ratio would spiral from 98% now to 274% by the mid-2070s. But there... 13th September 2024 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Shelter inflation the last piece of the puzzle The 25bp vs 50bp debate, which seemed settled following Governor Christopher Waller’s cautious speech shortly after the August Employment Report, was blown back open this week by what appeared to be... 13th September 2024 · 7 mins read
US Rapid Response Uni. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Sep. 2024) Despite the small rise in the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index in September, consumer confidence remains in a slump. At face value, weak sentiment points to softer consumer spending... 13th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Developers continue to shrug off high interest rates The sharp rebounds in both residential and non-residential building permit issuance in July eased concerns that the construction sector is about to take a turn for the worse. Risks remain, however... 13th September 2024 · 7 mins read
BoE Watch Slow pace of rate cuts initially, before quickening next year We agree with the widespread expectation that the 25 basis point (bps) cut in interest rates in August will be followed by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) leaving rates at 5.00% on Thursday 19th... 13th September 2024 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Government isn’t what’s keeping the RBA from cutting We aren't convinced that the recent surge in public sector employment is the main cause behind Australia's poor productivity performance and stubborn inflationary pressures. But with the latest survey... 13th September 2024 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Bank of Japan sticking to hawkish script Import price inflation slowed sharply in August and if the yen continues to strengthen, it may turn negative as soon as September. That may prompt the Bank of Japan to judge near-term risks to... 13th September 2024 · 6 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Apartments to top the charts with total returns of 9.5% p.a. There are tentative signs of improvement in the investment market, but we continue to think refinancing requirements will weigh on transactions. We still think appraisal-based valuations need to... 12th September 2024 · 21 mins read
UK Economics Focus The post-election UK economic landscape The structural deterioration in the fiscal situation suggests that a tight grip on the public finances in the Budget on 30th October will be necessary. That’s why we think the government will maintain... 12th September 2024 · 14 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (September 2024) Our Global Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The latest hard data and survey indicators point to a slowdown in both manufacturing... 12th September 2024 · 0 mins read
US Rapid Response Producer Prices (Aug) The August PPI data provide more encouragement for the Fed that inflation has been tamed. Together the CPI and PPI data point to a muted 0.14% m/m increase in the core PCE deflator last month, with... 12th September 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update RICS Residential Market Survey (Aug. 2024) Rising demand points to faster house price growth August’s RICS survey provided further evidence that housing demand is picking up in response to the recent falls in mortgage rates. What’s more, our... 12th September 2024 · 3 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Bank will deliver final rate hike in October The Bank of Japan will keep policy settings unchanged at its September meeting and will probably keep describing financial markets as unstable. However, recent data should have strengthened the Bank’s... 12th September 2024 · 8 mins read
Canada Economics Update What happened to the boost from Trans Mountain? There was little impact on GDP from the completion of the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion because the jump in exports was supported by a drawdown of inventories from elevated levels, rather than... 11th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Equities still at the mercy of inflation The adverse reaction in the stock market to today’s report on US consumer prices suggests inflation still matters to investors in equities, even if it has become a less important concern for them than... 11th September 2024 · 4 mins read