Japan Economics Weekly Election nailbiter Polls suggest that Japan’s ruling party, the LDP, could lose its Lower House majority on Sunday for the first time since its brief stint out of power ended in 2012. As long as it was still able to... 25th October 2024 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Governor Orr looks to temper rate cut expectations At a recent event, RBNZ Governor Adrian emphasised the need to take a measured approach to policy easing given the "lingering inflation persistence on the domestic side". His remarks support our view... 25th October 2024 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Update Population decline will drag down GDP growth The government’s new immigration plan implies that the population will decline by 0.2% in both 2025 and 2026, a huge shift from population growth of almost 3% over the past two years. That means GDP... 24th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Inflation Watch 2% core inflation by mid-2025 across DMs With goods inflation vanquished, the last leg of disinflation in advanced economies must come from falling services inflation. After plateauing at the start of the year, services inflation has fallen... 24th October 2024 · 17 mins read
Global Economics Update Weak PMIs make the case for faster rate cuts The latest flash PMIs suggest that GDP growth got off to a weak start in Q4 in most major advanced economies. The surveys also imply a slowdown in both services activity and employment growth in... 24th October 2024 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response New Home Sales (Sep. 2024) The increase in new home sales in September was probably supported by the fall in mortgage rates last month. Rates have rebounded since then, however, which lends support to our view that new home... 24th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Event Global Drop-In: Is inflation still a threat? 1730386800 Renewed jitters in bond markets in part reflect a nagging sense that inflation isn’t whipped.
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global Flash PMIs (Oct. 2024) The fall in October’s composite flash PMI to an 11-month low suggests that real GDP growth, after what is shaping up to be a 0.2% q/q rise in Q3, continued to slow to a crawl at the start of Q4. This... 24th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Bank will hike once more in December The Bank of Japan continues to signal that a rate hike at the upcoming meeting on 31 st October is unlikely. With economic activity and inflation evolving as the Bank had anticipated, we still expect... 24th October 2024 · 8 mins read
Canada Economics Update Will the Bank follow its 50bp cut with another? The weak economic backdrop means we still see a strong case for the Bank of Canada to follow its larger 50bp cut today, which took the policy rate to 3.75%, with another 50bp cut at the next meeting... 23rd October 2024 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Existing Home Sales (Sep. 2024) The 1% m/m fall in seasonally adjusted existing home sales in September seems underwhelming given last month’s drop in mortgage rates, but the rise in mortgage applications in September points to a... 23rd October 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Bank of Canada Policy Announcement (Oct. 2024) The weak economic backdrop means there is a strong case for the Bank of Canada to follow its larger 50bp cut today, which took the policy rate to 3.75%, with another 50bp move at the next meeting in... 23rd October 2024 · 2 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Flash PMIs (Oct. 24) The sharp fall in the composite PMI to a 2-year low supports our view that the strong rebound in activity that started in Q2 will be more muted across the second half of the year. Today’s flash... 23rd October 2024 · 1 min read
US Commercial Property Update Alternatives set to account for above 20% of investment Alternatives have grown in importance in portfolios in recent years and structural drivers including AI, an aging population and poor housing affordability point to further growth in occupier demand... 22nd October 2024 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Harris versus Trump - as election day approaches With two weeks to go until election day, Donald Trump has opened a meaningful lead over Kamala Harris in betting markets, although the latest polling suggests the race remains too close to call. To... 22nd October 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Outlook Lower mortgage rates to outdo higher taxes A fall in mortgage rates from 4.5% now to around 3.6% in late 2025 may mean that, despite increases in taxes in the Budget on 30th October, house prices rise by 5.0% in 2025 rather than the consensus... 22nd October 2024 · 16 mins read
