Canada Economics Weekly New immigration targets a headache for the Bank Alongside its decision to cut interest rates by a larger 50bp this week, the Bank of Canada outlined a set of positive economic forecasts, partly because it expects residential investment growth to... 25th October 2024 · 6 mins read
US Rapid Response Durable Goods Orders (Sep. 2024) While the fall in durable goods orders in September was mostly due to the volatile transportation components, the decline in underlying capital goods shipments will still drag on business equipment... 25th October 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly The knowns and unknowns of the new fiscal rule The growing likelihood that the PSNFL measure of debt will form one of the Chancellor's fiscal rules in next Wednesday's Budget theoretically means she could increase borrowing by £73bn (2.3% of GDP)... 25th October 2024 · 4 mins read
Bonds Focus Will Treasury bulls be able to face down the bond vigilantes? Our central forecast is that there won’t be a fiscally induced ‘crisis’ in the Treasury market. But there is clearly a risk of yields rising in response to higher term premia and more restrictive... 25th October 2024 · 17 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Election nailbiter Polls suggest that Japan’s ruling party, the LDP, could lose its Lower House majority on Sunday for the first time since its brief stint out of power ended in 2012. As long as it was still able to... 25th October 2024 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Governor Orr looks to temper rate cut expectations At a recent event, RBNZ Governor Adrian emphasised the need to take a measured approach to policy easing given the "lingering inflation persistence on the domestic side". His remarks support our view... 25th October 2024 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Update Population decline will drag down GDP growth The government’s new immigration plan implies that the population will decline by 0.2% in both 2025 and 2026, a huge shift from population growth of almost 3% over the past two years. That means GDP... 24th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Inflation Watch 2% core inflation by mid-2025 across DMs With goods inflation vanquished, the last leg of disinflation in advanced economies must come from falling services inflation. After plateauing at the start of the year, services inflation has fallen... 24th October 2024 · 17 mins read
Global Economics Update Weak PMIs make the case for faster rate cuts The latest flash PMIs suggest that GDP growth got off to a weak start in Q4 in most major advanced economies. The surveys also imply a slowdown in both services activity and employment growth in... 24th October 2024 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response New Home Sales (Sep. 2024) The increase in new home sales in September was probably supported by the fall in mortgage rates last month. Rates have rebounded since then, however, which lends support to our view that new home... 24th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Event Global Drop-In: Is inflation still a threat? 1730386800 Renewed jitters in bond markets in part reflect a nagging sense that inflation isn’t whipped.
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global Flash PMIs (Oct. 2024) The fall in October’s composite flash PMI to an 11-month low suggests that real GDP growth, after what is shaping up to be a 0.2% q/q rise in Q3, continued to slow to a crawl at the start of Q4. This... 24th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Bank will hike once more in December The Bank of Japan continues to signal that a rate hike at the upcoming meeting on 31 st October is unlikely. With economic activity and inflation evolving as the Bank had anticipated, we still expect... 24th October 2024 · 8 mins read
Canada Economics Update Will the Bank follow its 50bp cut with another? The weak economic backdrop means we still see a strong case for the Bank of Canada to follow its larger 50bp cut today, which took the policy rate to 3.75%, with another 50bp cut at the next meeting... 23rd October 2024 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Existing Home Sales (Sep. 2024) The 1% m/m fall in seasonally adjusted existing home sales in September seems underwhelming given last month’s drop in mortgage rates, but the rise in mortgage applications in September points to a... 23rd October 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Bank of Canada Policy Announcement (Oct. 2024) The weak economic backdrop means there is a strong case for the Bank of Canada to follow its larger 50bp cut today, which took the policy rate to 3.75%, with another 50bp move at the next meeting in... 23rd October 2024 · 2 mins read
