Japan Rapid Response Japan 2025 spring wage negotiations (Shunto) wage request With Japan’s trade unions requesting an even larger pay hike in this year’s spring wage negotiations (Shunto) than they did a year ago, we now expect the negotiations to result in a base pay hike of... 6th March 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Trump gives one-month reprieve on Canada & Mexico auto tariffs President Donald Trump's decision to grant a one-month exemption to the Big Three Automakers (Ford, GM & Stellantis) is something of a disappointment given the earlier heavy hints from his Commerce... 5th March 2025 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Mar. 2025) While the 0.1% q/q rise in GDP in Q4 of last year was stronger than we and most other forecasters expected, the combination of higher taxes for businesses announced in last October’s Budget, a... 5th March 2025 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response US ISM Services Index (Feb. 2025) After the slew of weaker activity and survey data in recent weeks, the small rise in the ISM services index in February should provide some reassurance that the floor is not falling from under the... 5th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Tariffs risk plunging Canada into recession If the US tariffs remain in place, Canada will undoubtedly fall into recession. The limited decline in the loonie so far suggests markets are still pricing in a quick U-turn from the Trump... 4th March 2025 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Update Japan entering Trump’s firing line Japanese firms will suffer some collateral damage from the 25% US tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico. And if Trump presses ahead with tariffs on imports from Japan, carmakers would be most... 4th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Retail Sales (Jan. 2025) Today’s retail sales release should mollify the RBA’s concerns that the pickup in consumer spending last quarter may have been a one-off. Accordingly, we’re sticking to our view that the Bank will... 4th March 2025 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Trump hits Canada, China and Mexico with more tariffs President Donald Trump’s has claimed that there is “no room left’ for Canada and Mexico to avoid the imposition of 25% across-the-board tariffs at midnight tonight and he has reportedly signed a... 3rd March 2025 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Austin knocks Nashville off top spot for US remote workers Our updated analysis of the most attractive apartment markets for remote workers sees Austin nudge Nashville into second place after two years at the top of the table, with San Antonio climbing to... 3rd March 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs point to higher goods price pressures The latest PMIs suggest that global industrial activity gained some momentum in February. But with more US tariffs on manufactured goods likely to come into force in the coming months, any rebound in... 3rd March 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Manufacturing Index (Feb. 2025) The fall in the ISM manufacturing index in February likely marks the beginning of the end of the recent mini renaissance, as the reality of the disruption to the sector caused by tariffs (including... 3rd March 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (Jan. 2025) The stagnating economy is partly because households appear to be continuing to save rather than spend, which is unlikely to change over the next six months with the sharp deterioration in the outlook... 3rd March 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus The risks from New Zealand’s large external deficit New Zealand’s current account deficit will remain large as domestic demand rebounds and the government is running a sizeable structural budget deficit. While the New Zealand dollar has recently been... 3rd March 2025 · 14 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia’s house price slowdown has further to run The modest uptick in Australian house prices last month is unlikely to mark the beginning of a meaningful rally. With the Reserve Bank of Australia set to deliver a shallow easing cycle, housing... 3rd March 2025 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Trumpcession? Following the 0.5% m/m slump in real consumption in January and the massive 10% m/m surge in real goods imports, we now expect first-quarter GDP to contract by 1.0% annualised. Assuming that surge in... 28th February 2025 · 7 mins read
