US Economics Weekly Deregulation unlikely to be a game changer We remain sceptical that deregulation will provide a disinflationary boost to the economy’s supply side and we suspect that any reduction in government spending or headcount would turn out to be... 22nd November 2024 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Will weak activity prompt the BoE to cut rates faster? While the rebound in CPI inflation in October strengthens the case for caution at the Bank of England, the worrying news on activity recently may mean some Monetary Policy Committee members reconsider... 22nd November 2024 · 4 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Retail Sales (Sep. 2024) The strong increase in retail sales volumes in September confirms that they grew by around 5% annualised last quarter, suggesting that household consumption growth picked up strongly. The October... 22nd November 2024 · 2 mins read
Climate Economics Update What have we learnt about Trump’s climate policy? Unsurprisingly, a second Trump presidency will support oil and gas production while rolling back environmental regulations. The fate of the Inflation Reduction Act is less certain, given that the... 22nd November 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global Flash PMIs (Nov. 2024) At face value, the fall in the composite PMI from 51.8 in October to 49.9 in November suggests that real GDP growth is contracting in the middle of Q4, following a muted expansion of 0.1% q/q in Q3... 22nd November 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Oct. 2024) The bigger-than-expected 0.7% m/m fall in retail sales in October (consensus forecast -0.3% m/m) suggests that households’ concerns about tax rises announced in the Budget on 30th October contributed... 22nd November 2024 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Upcoming Shunto will result in bigger pay hikes The stars are aligning for our long-held view that the Bank of Japan will hike rates again by year-end. And with a recent survey of Japanese firms pointing to even bigger pay hikes in next year's... 22nd November 2024 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Stillborn student cap adds to inflationary pressure The government's planned caps on foreign students won't see the light of the day because the Senate won't approve them. While foreign student commencement will still fall over the coming year, the... 22nd November 2024 · 5 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Consumer Prices (Oct. 24) The slowdown in headline inflation in October was due to base effects from utilities prices. With underlying inflation climbing further above the Bank’s 2% target, the case for another rate hike next... 21st November 2024 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Existing Home Sales (Oct. 2024) The modest rise in existing home sales in October reflects the earlier drop in mortgage rates over the summer and is unlikely to be repeated, as borrowing costs have since rebounded to 7%. 21st November 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Is Nvidia a sign that the AI boost for US equities is over? We don’t think the S&P 500’s AI tailwind has run out of puff yet, despite the seemingly lukewarm market reaction to Nvidia’s latest profit result. 21st November 2024 · 5 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Flash PMIs (Nov. 24) The renewed rise in the composite PMI supports our view that activity will continue to expand at a robust pace in the remainder of this year. Today’s flash estimate showed that the manufacturing PMI... 21st November 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Oct. 2024) October’s disappointing public finances figures underline the fiscal challenge that the Chancellor still faces, despite the big increases in spending and taxes announced in the Budget. And while the... 21st November 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack ANZ Chart Pack (Nov. 2024) Our ANZ Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The Antipodean central banks will tread different paths on policy over the forecast horizon. With the... 21st November 2024 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Nov. 2024) Our new forecast that Bank Rate will fall slower and not as far means that we now think mortgage rates will decline from 4.4% in October to 3.9% by the end of 2026, rather than to 3.5%. But we still... 20th November 2024 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update What is behind the slumping participation rate? The slump in the participation rate this year at least partly reflects the cyclical weakness of hiring, which means that the labour market is weaker than the unemployment rate alone might suggest. The... 20th November 2024 · 3 mins read
