Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Labour Market (Sep. 2024)

With the labour market running red hot, the Reserve Bank of Australia won’t cut rates before the first half of next year.

17th October 2024 · 2 mins read

Capital Daily

We think most DM yields will stay put through 2025

Falling inflation across developed markets (DM) supports our view that policy rates will generally settle at their neutral levels, close to current market pricing in most DMs. That’s why we expect...

16th October 2024 · 4 mins read

Bank of Canada Watch

Bank to accelerate loosening with 50bp cut

The Bank of Canada has said that it would be willing to cut interest rates “more quickly” if the data surprised to the downside of its forecasts, which is exactly what has happened since the Bank’s...

16th October 2024 · 7 mins read

Global Economics Update

China stimulus unlikely to have big spillovers to DMs

We may learn more about the size and structure of China’s fiscal package over the next couple of weeks, but based on what we know the impact on advanced economies will probably be small. The bigger...

16th October 2024 · 6 mins read

Canada Economics Update

Canada Housing Watch (Oct. 2024)

Lower mortgage rates have provided a small boost to demand but, with new listings outpacing sales again in September, the sales-to-new listing ratio suggests that house prices will soon fall...

16th October 2024 · 4 mins read

Canada Rapid Response

Canada Manufacturing Sales (Aug. 2024)

The 0.8% m/m decline in manufacturing sales volumes in August looks consistent with the flash estimate that GDP was unchanged that month, leaving the economy on track for a weaker third quarter...

16th October 2024 · 2 mins read

UK Economics Focus

Autumn Budget 2024 Preview

In her first Budget on Wednesday 30th October the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, faces the unenviable task of trying to achieve three objectives. First, being able to say there will be “no return to...

16th October 2024 · 26 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Consumer Prices (Sep. 2024)

The surprisingly large drop in CPI inflation in September increases the chances that the Bank of England will speed up the pace of interest rate cuts by reducing rates by 25 basis points (bps) at both...

16th October 2024 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q3 2024)

The weaker-than-expected Q3 CPI data reinforce our conviction that the RBNZ will loosen policy more aggressively than most are expecting.

15th October 2024 · 3 mins read

Event

Canada Drop-In: Why the market is coming round to our BoC rates call

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We’ve long held the view that the Bank of Canada will need to cut rates at an aggressive pace – and market pricing is quickly aligning with our forecast for a 50-basis point m

US Commercial Property Update

Consumer spending outlook bodes well for industrial rents

Industrial’s shift toward logistics means consumer-focused economic variables have become important drivers of rental growth. Admittedly, employment growth is set to slow. But a combination of...

15th October 2024 · 3 mins read

Canada Rapid Response

Canada Consumer Prices (Sep. 2024)

The large downside surprise to headline inflation in September and muted monthly gains in the CPI-trim and CPI-median core measures support our view that the Bank of Canada will choose a more...

15th October 2024 · 2 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Labour Market (Aug. 2024)

The further fall in wage growth in August, together with signs that the labour market continued to loosen gradually, adds further support to the widespread expectation that the Bank of England will...

15th October 2024 · 3 mins read

US Commercial Property Rapid Response

Flagging previous climate risk notes

In light of both Hurricanes Helene and Milton we are flagging notes where we highlighted the physical climate risks facing the US.

14th October 2024 · 1 min read

US Economics Weekly

Hurricanes add to upside inflation risks

Alongside the unexpectedly strong labour market data, September’s price data suggest that more than a few Fed officials might regret starting their easing cycle with a bigger 50bp rate cut. We...

11th October 2024 · 7 mins read