UK Economics Weekly Fiscal tightening may come later rather than sooner The big fiscal tightening set to be unveiled by the Chancellor at the Autumn Statement next Thursday is coming just as the recession begins. The clear risk is that the fiscal consolidation deepens the... 11th November 2022 · 9 mins read
Europe Data Response German Consumer Prices (October) The rise in core inflation in Germany in October confirms that underlying price pressure in the country are still building. We expect the core rate to remain well above 2% throughout next year. 11th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Thinner savings rate buffer for spending in Q4 Private consumption remained resilient in the face of the record COVID wave in Q3, suggesting that households have finally learned to live with the virus. We’ve revised up our Q3 spending forecast... 11th November 2022 · 8 mins read
UK Data Response GDP (Sep. & Q3) About half of the 0.6% m/m fall in real GDP in September and half of the 0.2% q/q decline in Q3 as a whole was caused by the one-off reduction in the number of working days due to the extra bank... 11th November 2022 · 5 mins read
UK Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Rising property yields help valuations stabilise Commercial property valuations began to stabilise in Q3, as a large rise in property yields helped offset a further rise in alternative asset yields. And with the reversal of the “mini-Budget” meaning... 10th November 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt the dual rally in Treasuries and equities will last US Treasuries and equities rallied sharply after US CPI came in softer than expected, but we doubt this dual rally will persist. While we think Treasury yields will fall back further as the Fed... 10th November 2022 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation Update UK HY corporate bonds may not stay bottom of the class We doubt the recent underperformance of UK high-yield corporate bonds relative to those in the euro-zone will continue given the relative outlooks for monetary policy and economic growth. 10th November 2022 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack Fiscal policy tightening just as the recession begins While the risk premium that pushed gilt yields up and the pound down after the mini-budget has mostly been reversed under the stewardship of Sunak and Hunt, the fear that the markets will baulk at any... 10th November 2022 · 9 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) The better than expected 0.3% m/m increase in core consumer prices in October won’t on its own persuade the Fed to drop its hawkish stance. But we expect this to mark the start of a much longer... 10th November 2022 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update ULI Consensus Forecast (Fall 2022) Consensus forecasts for 2023 have been downgraded pretty sharply since the Spring, but we don’t think they have gone far enough. While the consensus is predicting total returns of nearly 4% next year... 10th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Event UK Drop-In: How far will Hunt’s Autumn Statement go to appease the markets? 1668700800 Chief UK Economist Paul Dales and Jonas Goltermann, a senior economist from our Global Markets team, held a client briefing shortly after the Chancellor’s 17th November statement, to discuss his fi
UK Economics Focus Autumn Statement November 2022 – Preview In his Autumn Statement on 17 th November the Chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, faces a deep dilemma. If he wants to reassure the markets, he will have to announce early action in the form of a big fiscal... 10th November 2022 · 19 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the mid-terms and the lack of market reaction The inconclusive result from yesterday's US mid-term election has made limited impact on financial markets and, unlike in 2020, we doubt that would change even in the seemingly improbable event that... 9th November 2022 · 6 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Commercial crude stocks rose this week even though more crude was used by refiners. And despite the increase in refining output, gasoline and distillate stocks fell on strong demand. We think demand... 9th November 2022 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Outlook Sales to slump and prices to fall We expect mortgage rates will hold close to 7% over the remainder of the year, leaving affordability at its worst since 1985. That will lead to another sharp fall in activity. As the economy dips into... 8th November 2022 · 18 mins read
Energy Update High US fuel prices could boost crude exports US petroleum product prices have risen again, mainly due to refinery-side supply constraints. We think this will translate into fewer product exports, but potentially even more crude oil exports. 8th November 2022 · 2 mins read
