Capital Daily How is “higher for longer” playing out in the US stock market? Notwithstanding the partial recoveries today, the past month or so has seen a sell-off in both Treasuries and equities in which “rate sensitive” stock market sectors have underperformed. So long as... 3rd March 2023 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Powell and payrolls to clarify rate outlook The February employment report and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony to Congress next week should give a clearer indication of whether recent talk of interest rates going “higher for longer” is... 3rd March 2023 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Improved outlook for inflation, activity and even Brexit It may seem odd that we are revising down our CPI inflation forecast when investors’ concerns about the stickiness of inflation are growing. But the revisions are triggered by the further fall in the... 3rd March 2023 · 8 mins read
Global Markets Update Two points on “higher for longer” and asset markets With much of the global economy holding up surprisingly well and inflation not coming down as quickly as expected, investors are weighing up the risk that policy rates remain elevated for much longer... 3rd March 2023 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Private consumption will weaken further this year While Q4 GDP was broadly in line in with our expectations, the details show that the Australian consumer is on weaker ground than we had thought. The confluence of falling real disposable incomes... 3rd March 2023 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Economy headed for recession We're expecting industrial production to rebound strongly in February. Even so, industrial output will still slump this quarter, pointing to a larger q/q fall in Q1 GDP than we’re forecasting. However... 3rd March 2023 · 5 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Yield Curve Control could be abandoned this month Yield Curve Control is on counted time and the key question is not if but when it will be abandoned. The Bank could wait until Kazuo Ueda becomes Governor in April. But given that this risks another... 3rd March 2023 · 8 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Market (Jan. 23) & Tokyo CPI (Feb. 23) The unemployment fell slightly in January but we’re still expecting it to rise through mid-year due to an economic downturn. Meanwhile, energy inflation fell by less than we expected in Tokyo as... 3rd March 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Three points on the latest rise in government bond yields Stronger-than-expected inflation and activity data have fuelled a further rebound in developed market (DM) government bond yields, posing upside risks to our policy rate forecasts. Even so, we think... 2nd March 2023 · 6 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Property returns to revive over the longer term The current economic downturn will mean that short-to-medium term property performance is under-par. But over a longer horizon, we expect real estate returns to reassert their traditional position... 2nd March 2023 · 3 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Employment growth to drop back to trend After the blowout 517,000 gain in January, we expect a more modest 200,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in February. But given the potential impact of weather and seasonality effects in January there... 2nd March 2023 · 4 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Labour Market (Jan. 2023) & Tokyo CPI (Feb. 2023) 2nd March 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Capital Spending (Q4 2022) The increase in capital spending reported in today’s “Financial Statements Statistics of Corporations” is broadly consistent with the preliminary Q4 GDP estimate. That means Q4 GDP growth is likely to... 2nd March 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Dwellings investment won’t fall as sharply Although the fall in house prices slowed significantly in February, we are not convinced that Australia’s housing market is out of the woods yet. Even so, there are growing indications that dwellings... 2nd March 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response IPF Consensus Forecasts (Feb.) The latest IPF Consensus Survey showed a modest upgrade to forecasts for total returns in 2023, driven by an uplift to the capital value view. That looks to reflect the larger-than-expected fall in... 1st March 2023 · 3 mins read
