Capital Daily The worst may not be over for US big-tech Although US “big-tech” stocks have had a torrid time so far this year, including for much of the past week on net, we think there is still ample scope for the “supersector” in which they reside to... 8th November 2022 · 5 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Global recession seals real estate downturn In line with changes in our global economic view, we have made significant downgrades to our commercial real estate forecasts for the next couple of years. As a result, we now expect a much bigger... 8th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Surge in regular pay more than a reopening distortion A strong rebound in working hours in the accommodation and food services sector is one reason why regular pay is growing at the fastest pace in a generation. However, there’s been a broad-based upward... 8th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Energy price caps could knock off 1%-pt from inflation The proposed price caps on thermal coal and natural gas would knock off around one to 1.25%-pts from overall inflation though the full impact would only materialise in the second half of next year. 8th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Mixed labour market signals may mean yields stay high for a while While we still think a sustained fall in Treasury yields is on the cards, the latest US employment data suggest it may still be a while off yet. 4th November 2022 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank’s dovish tilt looking premature The modest fiscal loosening unveiled in the Fall Economic Statement this week is unlikely to move the needle much for monetary policy, but the surge in employment in October and the acceleration in... 4th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Oct.) The 108,300 surge in employment in October makes a mockery of claims that the economy is on the cusp of recession and, with wage growth accelerating sharply despite favourable base effects, that means... 4th November 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (Oct.) As was the case last month, an improvement in delivery times and subcontractor availability drove a surprise rise on the headline construction PMI in October. But a slowing economy and higher... 4th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Event Markets Drop-In: Looming global recession another threat to risky assets 1668004200 Chief Markets Economist John Higgins held a discussion with economists from across our Markets team shortly after the release of our Q4 Outlooks.
Precious Metals Update Gold and silver prices to rise next year Gold and silver prices fell following Chair Powell’s hawkish comments yesterday. But if we are right in thinking US rates won’t rise by as much as markets expect, gold and silver prices should... 3rd November 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update What the latest central bank signals mean for markets The differing tones of the Fed, ECB and BoE at their recent meetings have seen yields rise in the US more than elsewhere and reignited the rally in the US dollar. That pattern could last a few more... 3rd November 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We don’t buy the BoE’s dovish tilt We’re inclined to agree with investors’ decision to shrug off the Bank of England’s dovish tilt and the suggestion that market pricing is wide of the mark earlier. We still expect Bank Rate to rise to... 3rd November 2022 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Update Joining the 75bps club, but strong signal rates won’t rise to 5.25% Although the Monetary Policy Committee raised interest rates today by 75 basis points, from 2.25% to a 14-year high of 3.00%, it sent the strongest signal yet that it thinks rates won’t need to rise... 3rd November 2022 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (3rd Nov.) 3rd November 2022 · 2 mins read
