US Data Response Durable Goods (Oct.) The solid 1.0% m/m rise in durable goods orders in October indicates that business equipment investment continues to hold up reasonably well in the face of higher borrowing costs, helped by a boost to... 23rd November 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Revising down peak Bank Rate from 5.00% to 4.50% With fiscal policy no longer expected to be ultra-loose and some signs emerging that domestic price pressures will ease further ahead, we no longer expect the Bank of England to raise interest rates... 23rd November 2022 · 4 mins read
UK Data Response S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Nov.) While the composite flash PMI improved marginally in November, it stayed firmly below the no-change level of 50.0, which is consistent with our view that the economy is already in recession. However... 23rd November 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Resilient monthly data do not change gloomy outlook Recent monthly data from the advanced economies have tended to exceed analysts’ gloomy expectations. This is partly due to an easing of supply shortages, which could offer some further support to... 23rd November 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italy: budget hurdle cleared, but debt risks remain Italy’s draft 2023 budget confirms that, for now, the new right-wing government is committed to fiscal responsibility. As a result, the risk of turbulence in BTP markets has fallen, but it remains... 22nd November 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Sep.) The small fall in retail sales volumes in September appears to have been reversed in October but, more generally, sales volumes have been little changed for the past six months and the low leve of... 22nd November 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Oct.) October’s public finances figures showed that government borrowing is no longer coming in below last year’s monthly totals. And the combination of the government’s energy price support and pressures... 22nd November 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update We think Bund yields will fall by less than Treasury yields Although we think the yields of high-grade, long-dated government bonds will fall in general in the next couple of years, we expect those of Bunds to fall by less than those of Treasuries, as... 21st November 2022 · 4 mins read
Energy Update US oil output will edge higher next year High oil prices have led to a recovery in US oil investment this year. But US crude production gains have been tempered by rising business costs and an emphasis on returning profits to shareholders... 21st November 2022 · 4 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Surging inflation won’t last Headline inflation shot up to 3.7% y/y in October, the strongest since December 1990 while inflation excluding fresh food and energy rose from 1.8% to 2.5%. Although this puts inflation well above the... 21st November 2022 · 11 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Oct.) A renewed rise in mortgage rates led to the largest month-on-month decline in existing home sales since February. As the impact of higher rates continues to feed through in the coming months, we... 18th November 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Monetary tightening now, fiscal tightening later With the planned fiscal squeeze coming after 2024/25, the Autumn Statement was not just good politics, but good economics too. Even so, the UK's fiscal consolidation stands out in comparison to the... 18th November 2022 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly October CPI data offer some encouragement Although the data this week showed renewed rises in the annual rates of CPI-trim and CPI-median inflation in October, our calculations show that the timelier 3-month annualised measures both declined... 18th November 2022 · 5 mins read
