US Housing Market Update Small fall in apartment rents as recession bites We expect a small fall in apartment rents next year, as stretched affordability and stagnant employment hit demand while completions surge. But as job growth recovers and the vacancy rate drops back... 31st October 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Sep.) Mortgage approvals fell in September as buyers began to adjust to rising interest rates. With further rate rises likely in the coming months, we expect this downward trend to continue and for lending... 31st October 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Money & Credit (Sep.) The increase in precautionary household saving in September and weakening demand for credit poses an extra downside risk to our forecast that the economy will contract by 2% during a recession. These... 31st October 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Sep.) Net lending to commercial property was positive in September but, looking through the monthly volatility, there is a clear downward trend in lending. With the economy entering a recession and property... 31st October 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Outlook Spike in mortgage rates to trigger price correction The jump in market interest rates following the ill-advised “mini” budget has forced quoted mortgage rates up to over 5%, a level not seen since 2009. That will turn the slowdown in demand already... 31st October 2022 · 25 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Retail Sales (Sep. 22) 31st October 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Sep. 22) 31st October 2022 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Further pain may be in store for growth stocks, and the S&P 500 We don’t think growth stocks’ relative struggles are over, nor do we expect a further rebound in the broader stock market yet. 28th October 2022 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Farewell fiscal loosening The reports that Chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, in his Autumn Statement on 17th November will unveil a fiscal tightening of up to £50bn suggests that fiscal policy will soon become a major drag on the... 28th October 2022 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Faltering economy will contribute to Fed pivot The 2.6% annualised rise in third quarter GDP was a lot worse than it looked, with growth in underlying demand grinding to a near-halt. At the same time, there are mounting signs that economic... 28th October 2022 · 9 mins read
Europe Data Response Germany Flash Inflation (October) Renewed inflation shockers in Germany, France and Italy in October pour cold water on expectations that the ECB’s softer tone on rate hikes yesterday will pave the way for a “pivot”. We continue to... 28th October 2022 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Income & Spending (Sep.), Employment Cost Index (Q3) 28th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Public support will push inflation below 2% again The Tokyo CPI’s strength in October has prompted us to lift our forecast for the peak in underlying inflation from 2.5% to 3.0%. However, government support measures announced today mean that headline... 28th October 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Data Response German GDP (Q3 2022) The unexpected resilience of Germany’s economy in Q3, with GDP rising 0.3% q/q, has probably only postponed the recession which we now expect to begin in the fourth quarter. Business surveys show that... 28th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Window for policy tightening is closing rapidly The Bank of Japan revised up its medium-term inflation forecasts while keeping policy unchanged today, but we still think that it won’t snuff out the budding virtuous cycle between incomes and wages. 28th October 2022 · 3 mins read
