US Employment Report Preview Employment growth to drop back to trend After the blowout 517,000 gain in January, we expect a more modest 200,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in February. But given the potential impact of weather and seasonality effects in January there... 2nd March 2023 · 4 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Labour Market (Jan. 2023) & Tokyo CPI (Feb. 2023) 2nd March 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Capital Spending (Q4 2022) The increase in capital spending reported in today’s “Financial Statements Statistics of Corporations” is broadly consistent with the preliminary Q4 GDP estimate. That means Q4 GDP growth is likely to... 2nd March 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Dwellings investment won’t fall as sharply Although the fall in house prices slowed significantly in February, we are not convinced that Australia’s housing market is out of the woods yet. Even so, there are growing indications that dwellings... 2nd March 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response IPF Consensus Forecasts (Feb.) The latest IPF Consensus Survey showed a modest upgrade to forecasts for total returns in 2023, driven by an uplift to the capital value view. That looks to reflect the larger-than-expected fall in... 1st March 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs: Industry struggling but possibly past the worst The broad-based improvement in the output components of February’s manufacturing PMIs suggests that the worst of the global industrial downturn is already in the rear-view mirror. That said, it is too... 1st March 2023 · 3 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Too soon for pause to become permanent The fall in CPI inflation in January and stagnation in fourth-quarter GDP mean there is little chance of the Bank of Canada resuming interest rate hikes next week. But concerns about the tight labour... 1st March 2023 · 7 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Feb.) Stronger-than-expected economic data led to a resurgence in mortgage rates in February, which put a stop to a tentative recovery in mortgage applications for home purchase. This points to sales... 1st March 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Money & Credit (Jan.) While January’s money and credit figures suggest that higher interest rates are continuing to act as a drag on the housing market, they appear to be having less influence in other areas of the economy... 1st March 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Jan.) Net lending to property was once again positive in January, even as commercial property investment collapsed in the final quarter of last year. Investors may be preparing to re-enter the market and... 1st March 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Jan.) The spike in mortgage rates in October and November last year ensured that mortgage approvals remained at a similar level to the depths of the 2007-09 financial crisis in January. That could mark the... 1st March 2023 · 3 mins read
RBA Watch RBA will lift cash rate to 4.1% The RBA adopted a more hawkish tone at its February meeting and we expect it to hike the cash rate to 4.1% by May. But with recent economic data mostly surprising to the downside, we still see a good... 1st March 2023 · 8 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Feb.) The further fall in house prices in February will keep optimism based on reports that demand has recovered in check. Indeed, even if buyer volumes have recovered, the amount they can spend on a new... 1st March 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Feb.) Although the decline in house prices slowed markedly in February, we’re not convinced the worst is over. As such, we expect house prices to fall by another 6% before the year is up. 1st March 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia GDP (Q4 22) & CPI Indicator (Jan. 23) GDP growth softened last quarter and inflation slowed sharply in January. But with inflation still very high, that won’t prevent the RBA from hiking the cash rate to a peak of 4.1% in May. 1st March 2023 · 3 mins read
