Japan Economics Weekly Discretionary spending cuts hurting service sector While the rebound in inbound tourism is positive for the accommodation and transport sectors, the wider services sector is struggling because households are having to cut back on discretionary... 25th November 2022 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly High migration, but low labour force The most striking thing about the record rise in net migration in the year to June 2022 is that it has not prevented the decline in the labour force. Without the rise in net migration, the labour... 25th November 2022 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update BoE losses add pressure on the public finances The Treasury has started to make payments to the Bank of England’s Asset Purchase Facility (APF) to cover the losses it has racked up because of the Bank of England’s gilt purchases. While this won’t... 25th November 2022 · 6 mins read
Japan Data Response Tokyo Consumer Prices (Nov. 2022) Headline inflation in the capital set a new three-decade high in November on aggressive rises in food inflation excluding fresh food and industrial goods inflation. The upshot is that nationwide... 25th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Construction the next shoe to drop The big surprise so far this year has been the resilience of housing starts which, despite falling from their 10-month high of 300,000 annualised in September, remained at a relatively strong 267,000... 24th November 2022 · 8 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Nov.) The increase in the Ifo Business Climate Index in November does not change the big picture that the German economy is likely to contract in Q4. 24th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Ifo Business Climate Indicator (November) 24th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Flash PMIs (Nov. 2022) November’s flash PMIs point to further weakness in the manufacturing sector, corroborating firms’ forecasts. At the same time, services activity appears to be struggling due to the rapid rise in... 24th November 2022 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update How will banks respond to falling house prices? Banks are likely to tighten credit conditions over the next year to protect themselves from house price falls. But their more cautious approach to lending in this cycle means we don’t think they will... 23rd November 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Still no sign of an earnings recession & why it matters for equities Our view that most stock markets haven’t reached a bottom yet is driven by a conviction that the world economy is slipping into a recession. But if we’re wrong about the outlook for global growth... 23rd November 2022 · 6 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Oct.) New home sales have levelled off in recent months, but leading indicators support our view that sales will fall a little further by the end of the year. Looking ahead, we expect stretched... 23rd November 2022 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Recession odds rising Despite the resilience evident in the latest round of hard data, our recession tracker models suggest the odds of a downturn next year are still rising. 23rd November 2022 · 7 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Employment growth easing; wage growth slowing We estimate that non-farm payroll employment increased by a more modest 175,000 in November, although that should be sufficient to leave the unemployment rate unchanged at 3.7%. 23rd November 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update BTL investors face severe financial squeeze The record-low yields on rental properties and fall in house prices we forecast imply poor returns for Buy-to-Let landlords over the next few years. Moreover, the jump in mortgage rates means a... 23rd November 2022 · 4 mins read
