Capital Daily Still no sign of an earnings recession & why it matters for equities Our view that most stock markets haven’t reached a bottom yet is driven by a conviction that the world economy is slipping into a recession. But if we’re wrong about the outlook for global growth... 23rd November 2022 · 6 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Oct.) New home sales have levelled off in recent months, but leading indicators support our view that sales will fall a little further by the end of the year. Looking ahead, we expect stretched... 23rd November 2022 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Recession odds rising Despite the resilience evident in the latest round of hard data, our recession tracker models suggest the odds of a downturn next year are still rising. 23rd November 2022 · 7 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Employment growth easing; wage growth slowing We estimate that non-farm payroll employment increased by a more modest 175,000 in November, although that should be sufficient to leave the unemployment rate unchanged at 3.7%. 23rd November 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update BTL investors face severe financial squeeze The record-low yields on rental properties and fall in house prices we forecast imply poor returns for Buy-to-Let landlords over the next few years. Moreover, the jump in mortgage rates means a... 23rd November 2022 · 4 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Oct.) The solid 1.0% m/m rise in durable goods orders in October indicates that business equipment investment continues to hold up reasonably well in the face of higher borrowing costs, helped by a boost to... 23rd November 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Revising down peak Bank Rate from 5.00% to 4.50% With fiscal policy no longer expected to be ultra-loose and some signs emerging that domestic price pressures will ease further ahead, we no longer expect the Bank of England to raise interest rates... 23rd November 2022 · 4 mins read
UK Data Response S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Nov.) While the composite flash PMI improved marginally in November, it stayed firmly below the no-change level of 50.0, which is consistent with our view that the economy is already in recession. However... 23rd November 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Resilient monthly data do not change gloomy outlook Recent monthly data from the advanced economies have tended to exceed analysts’ gloomy expectations. This is partly due to an easing of supply shortages, which could offer some further support to... 23rd November 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italy: budget hurdle cleared, but debt risks remain Italy’s draft 2023 budget confirms that, for now, the new right-wing government is committed to fiscal responsibility. As a result, the risk of turbulence in BTP markets has fallen, but it remains... 22nd November 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Sep.) The small fall in retail sales volumes in September appears to have been reversed in October but, more generally, sales volumes have been little changed for the past six months and the low leve of... 22nd November 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Oct.) October’s public finances figures showed that government borrowing is no longer coming in below last year’s monthly totals. And the combination of the government’s energy price support and pressures... 22nd November 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update We think Bund yields will fall by less than Treasury yields Although we think the yields of high-grade, long-dated government bonds will fall in general in the next couple of years, we expect those of Bunds to fall by less than those of Treasuries, as... 21st November 2022 · 4 mins read
