UK Economics Update Weak housing market to squeeze spending and investment We suspect that more weakness in the housing market will weigh on real GDP by further reducing residential investment and consumer spending. This is one reason why we think the economy is close to a... 25th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Ifo Business Climate Indicator (Oct.) The small rise in the Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) in October still left the index in contractionary territory, echoing the downbeat message from the Composite PMI released yesterday. This chimes... 25th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q3 2023) With price pressures being slower to abate than the RBA had anticipated, we think the Bank will deliver one final 25bp rate at its next meeting in November. 25th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs point to weaker activity and lower inflation The October flash PMI surveys suggest that economic activity got off to a weak start in Q4, especially in Europe. And with weak activity taking some of the steam out of labour markets and inflation... 24th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Inflation back to target by end-2024 Global headline inflation has fallen sharply from its peak a year ago and, despite a temporary setback due to higher fuel inflation, we expect it to fall a lot further over the coming year. The huge... 24th October 2023 · 16 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Flash PMIs (Oct. 2023) The composite activity PMI inched up from 48.5 in September to 48.6 in October after five months of declines. But that still leaves the PMI at a level that, historically, has been consistent with a... 24th October 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Aug. 2023) The labour market appeared not to loosen as much as we thought in August based on the Office for National Statistics’ new experimental data. But this is unlikely to sway the Bank of England ahead of... 24th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Forecast revisions won’t prompt tighter policy just yet The Bank of Japan will lift its growth and inflation forecasts at the upcoming meeting, but we think that it will wait for further signs that strong wage growth continues before tightening policy any... 24th October 2023 · 8 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) Our forecast that the Bank of England won’t start cutting interest rates until the second half of 2024 means mortgage rates are likely to stay between 5% and 6% until mid-2024. While transactions... 23rd October 2023 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Third-quarter strength unlikely to last The apparent strength of third-quarter GDP growth won’t convince the Fed to resume hiking its policy rate, particularly with the ongoing surge in long-term bond yields presenting a growing threat to... 20th October 2023 · 8 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Lower house prices will help pull down CPI inflation The renewed weakness in the housing market and likelihood that mortgage interest cost inflation will soon ease are reasons to expect core inflation to trend lower in the coming months. Next week, the... 20th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update What our revised forecasts for Treasuries imply for US equities Although we have revised up our forecasts for the 10-year Treasury yield between now and the end of 2025, we aren’t inclined to change our upbeat projection for the S&P 500 over this period. This is... 20th October 2023 · 4 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) The renewed surge in long-term Treasury yields illustrates that the full impact of Fed tightening is still feeding through, and we continue to expect economic growth to slow sharply over the coming... 20th October 2023 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Optimism on inflation, fiscal challenges for next government Although we still think that the UK’s inflation problem will dissipate slowly rather than suddenly and the situation in the Middle East poses an upside risk to our inflation forecasts, leading... 20th October 2023 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Sep. 2023) The 0.9% m/m fall in retail sales volumes in September meant sales volumes fell 0.8% q/q in Q3 and suggests that after the 18-month-long retail recession came to an end in Q1, the sector may already... 20th October 2023 · 3 mins read
