US Commercial Property Rapid Response US Metro Employment (May.) Total employment growth was resilient across metros in May, recording 0.6% 3m/3m on average. That growth was led again by Boston, Las Vegas and Charlotte, with San Antonio also seeing a rise of over 1... 28th June 2023 · 2 mins read
RBA Watch Cash rate will peak at 4.85% by September While headline inflation plunged in May, we doubt that this will have assuaged the Bank’s concerns about soaring unit labour costs and rising inflation expectations. Accordingly, we’re sticking to our... 28th June 2023 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (May) The sharp fall in inflation in May raises the risk that Reserve Bank of Australia will not raise any further at the upcoming meeting in July, but we still think that mounting upside risks to inflation... 28th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Recession or not, growth to disappoint Strong immigration and the turnaround in the housing market raise the chance that the economy will avoid recession but, with the Bank of Canada back in hiking mode, we still judge that GDP will... 27th June 2023 · 14 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response New Home Sales (May) New home sales increased for the third consecutive month in May, rising by a punchy 12.2% m/m to reach 763,000 annualised, the highest level since February 2022. This leaves them firmly above pre... 27th June 2023 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Apr.) House prices rose in April by the fastest pace in close to a year, reflecting constraints to supply as high mortgage rates have discouraged existing homeowners from moving. Although prices have shown... 27th June 2023 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Durable Goods (May) The 1.7% m/m rise in durable goods orders in May was stronger than we had expected, even accounting for a big rise in the volatile commercial aircraft component. But the wider evidence still suggests... 27th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (May) While the steep declines in both headline and core inflation in May were partly due to favourable base effects, the monthly gains in each also slowed compared to April. That probably won’t be enough... 27th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Friend-shoring picking up pace beneath the surface At first glance, there’s little sign of friend-shoring among Japanese firms as they have directed a rising share of their outward foreign direct investment at China. However, this largely reflects... 26th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly July rate hike still looking likely The latest Summary of Deliberations gave no hint about whether the Bank of Canada will raise interest rates again at the July meeting but, with little progress yet on any of the key factors that the... 23rd June 2023 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs: Growth slowing but services inflation still high June’s flash PMIs suggest that not only has activity in advanced economies slowed at the end of Q2, but the outlook has also deteriorated further. This is particularly true in the manufacturing sector... 23rd June 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly BoE can’t get no satisfaction Judging by the heavy criticism of the Bank of England this week, it seems as though it is dammed if it raises interest rates rapidly and damned if it raises them slowly. While we think some of the... 23rd June 2023 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Growth still weakening despite housing rebound The jump in housing starts in May appeared to confirm that the sector is enjoying a revival of fortune as mortgage rates have eased slightly. Nevertheless, the experience of the mild recession of 2001... 23rd June 2023 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Flash PMIs (Jun. 2023) June’s flash activity PMIs won’t do much to ease the Bank of England’s inflation fears, which suggests that yesterday’s interest rate rise to 5.00% won’t be the last. Our forecast is for rates to rise... 23rd June 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (May 2023) The further rebound in retail sales volumes in May suggests the recent resilience in economic activity hasn’t yet faded. But we think it’s too soon to conclude the rebound in retail sales will be... 23rd June 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Job mobility eases, critical minerals policy disappoints The latest Labour Force Survey data show that labour mobility in Australia is coming off the boil. That should help contain wage pressures going forward, given that job switching typically results in... 23rd June 2023 · 6 mins read
