US Commercial Property Update Higher for longer to push all-property cap rates above 5% On the back of upward adjustments to our 10-Year Treasury yield forecasts, we now expect to see a larger increase in cap rates. This will see office cap rates rise to over 6.5% by end-2024, pushing... 30th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Worrying signs for the US economy from CMBS spreads A renewed surge in the spreads of private-label commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS), at a time when the spreads of high-yield (HY) corporate bonds have remained fairly subdued (see Chart 1)... 30th October 2023 · 4 mins read
London Housing Markets Chart Pack London Housing Chart Pack (Q4 2023) London house prices have fallen by less than we anticipated, and stopped falling altogether in Q3. However, the high level of house prices compared to incomes should mean that higher mortgage rates... 30th October 2023 · 1 min read
UK Markets Outlook Higher for longer narrative has gone too far While we think sticky core inflation will mean that the Bank of England keeps interest rates at their peak of 5.25% until late in 2024, we think the markets have gone too far in concluding that rates... 30th October 2023 · 11 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response BoE Mortgage Lending (Sep.23) The drop in mortgage approvals in September left them a third below their usual level in the years leading up to the pandemic as high mortgage rates put homeowners off moving and priced many first... 30th October 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Credit (Sep. 2023) The further easing in bank lending in September will continue to weigh on activity, particularly in the housing market. This is consistent with our view that a mild recession may already be underway... 30th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We don’t think it’s game over for AI-related equities Today’s rebound in Amazon’s share price following news that its sales were better than expected in Q3 has shored up the performance of the ‘Magnificent 7’ in what has otherwise been a tough week for... 27th October 2023 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank won’t need to talk tough for much longer The Bank of Canada’s insistence that inflationary risks have increased seems at odds with its new forecasts, which show a large degree of economic slack opening up next year. Our view that the Bank is... 27th October 2023 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Has the AI productivity boom already begun? While we are optimistic about the prospects for an AI-related boom in productivity over the next decade, it’s hard to tell whether the current pick-up in growth is a genuine structural acceleration or... 27th October 2023 · 7 mins read
US Rapid Response Personal Income & Spending (Sep.) The stronger gains in real consumption and the core PCE price index in September are a potential concern for Fed officials, but won’t be enough to convince them to resume raising interest rates next... 27th October 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Eroding trust in data leaves policymakers in a bind In recent months there has been a growing number of question marks over the accuracy of key economic data. As a result, it’s more important than usual to not put too much weight on any one indicator... 27th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Uptick in global trade unlikely to be sustained for long Global goods trade rose slightly in August and timelier data point to further gains in September. But we expect global trade to fall again in due course as economic downturns in several advanced... 27th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update New forecasts for developed market government bonds In line with our upwardly revised forecasts for the 10-year US Treasury yield, we’ve raised our projections for 10-year government bond yields in most other developed market economies. But we still... 27th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ will probably leave yield cap unchanged for now Media reports suggest that the Bank of Japan may tweak Yield Curve Control yet again at next week’s meeting, but we aren’t convinced the Bank will lift the 10-year yield cap just three months after... 27th October 2023 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Stakes rise for RBA’s November policy decision With inflation surprising on the upside and the labour market running out of spare capacity, the case for the RBA to tighten policy has never been more compelling. Although RBA Governor Michele... 27th October 2023 · 8 mins read
