Capital Daily We still think Treasury yields and the S&P 500 will fall this year Despite today’s stronger-than-expected US non-farm payrolls report, we continue to think that the 10-year Treasury yield and S&P 500 will fall over the next couple of quarters. 5th May 2023 · 8 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Rising house prices could delay policy loosening Following the renewed concerns about regional US banks this week, markets are again pricing in interest rate cuts from the Bank of Canada later this year. From a domestic perspective, however, the... 5th May 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italian debt sustainability revisited Our central scenario is that Italy’s public debt-to-GDP ratio will decline gradually in the long-run. However, the government will need to maintain sizeable primary budget surpluses to make that... 5th May 2023 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed pause may not last for long The April employment report showed that while jobs growth remains solid enough, it is still trending lower and the surveys suggest activity growth is slowing too. With ongoing concerns over regional... 5th May 2023 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Hikes nearly over, but most of their effect still to come While the hiking cycles of all major central banks will soon be in the rear-view mirror, most of their impact on activity lies on the road ahead. Based on the latest national accounts data, we... 5th May 2023 · 5 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Apr.) The 253,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in April suggests that the labour market remains resilient despite the banking sector turmoil and broader signs of an economic slowdown. That said, the stronger... 5th May 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Apr.) The decline in full-time positions in April means that the large rise in total employment was weaker than it looks. Hours worked only crept up during the LFS reference week and, given the public... 5th May 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Pound standing to attention for King’s Coronation You’d be forgiven for thinking that the pound has been caught up in the wave of Britishness ahead of the King’s Coronation this weekend. But instead the rise to a 12-month high of $1.26 has been... 5th May 2023 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Signs of economic weakness, rates to peak at 3.75% Hard data and surveys released this week suggests to us that although the euro-zone economy may again avoid a contraction in Q2, it will remain very weak. Otherwise, we have lowered our forecast for... 5th May 2023 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Wage growth has yet to peak Pay hikes under Australia's private-sector enterprise bargaining agreements have gained traction. Although annualised wage growth will climb higher over the course of the year, we still expect a... 5th May 2023 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Wage growth set to moderate as labour market cools The Bank of Japan thinks that more pronounced labour shortages at smaller firms will prompt them to eventually catch up with bigger firms by granting larger pay hikes. However, with the labour market... 5th May 2023 · 5 mins read
BoE Watch Will 4.50% be the peak? With the financial markets and other forecasters having come round to our long-held view that Bank Rate will rise to 4.50%, the real question is whether a 25 basis points rise to 4.50% at the Monetary... 4th May 2023 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB slows the pace but the journey goes on The ECB’s decision to raise its deposit rate by 25bp to 3.25% was in line with market expectations. Meanwhile, President Lagarde’s repeated statement that the Bank is not pausing, and our view that... 4th May 2023 · 3 mins read