Our forecast that the Bank of England won’t start cutting interest rates until the second half of 2024 means mortgage rates are likely to stay between 5% and 6% until mid-2024. While transactions volumes have only seen a modest decline so far, very weak mortgage lending volumes suggest that they will slip further. Weak demand at the same time as the number of homes on the market is rising will result in further price falls. We expect a further 5% fall in house prices, taking the peak-to-trough fall to 10%.
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