RBNZ Watch

RBNZ to stay put, rate cuts only in Q1 2024

Having raised rates more aggressively than any other developed market central bank, we think the RBNZ’s tightening cycle is now over. The Bank has already succeeded in sending the economy into...

5th July 2023 · 7 mins read

Japan Economics Update

Fertiliser cost surge to unwind

Processed food inflation hit a fresh high in May but the recent moderation in food import prices as well as likely declines in domestic fertiliser prices suggest it will soon start to moderate.

5th July 2023 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Tightening cycle not over yet

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to keep rates unchanged at 4.10% today suggests that interest rates may not rise all the way to 4.85% as we expect, but further tightening still seems likely.

4th July 2023 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (Jul. 23)

4th July 2023 · 2 mins read

Global Economics Update

PMIs: Weak demand set to weigh on industry further

The latest PMIs suggest that not only did global manufacturing activity contract at the end of Q2, but the outlook for the manufacturing sector also seems to have deteriorated further. At least the...

3rd July 2023 · 3 mins read

US Rapid Response

ISM Manufacturing Index (Jun.)

The further fall in the ISM manufacturing index to 46.0 in June, from 46.9, is difficult to square with claims from some commentators that economic growth is rebounding and provides further reason to...

3rd July 2023 · 2 mins read

UK Markets Chart Pack

UK Markets Chart Pack (Jun. 2023)

This new Chart Pack has been designed to replace our Chart Book in response to client feedback to make our insights more accessible, and with more options to incorporate them into your workflow. Use...

3rd July 2023 · 1 min read

‘Greedflation’ debate muddles inflation’s symptoms with its cause

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

CoreLogic House Prices (Jun.)

Australia’s house-price rebound showed no signs of slowing in June. However, with the RBA set to swing its rate hammer a few more times, we’re sticking with our view that the upturn will prove...

3rd July 2023 · 4 mins read

Japan Rapid Response

Japan BoJ Tankan (Q2 2023)

Today’s Tankan survey showed a turnaround for the flagging manufacturing sector, while the services sector has become even more bullish. And the rise in business condition readings across all...

3rd July 2023 · 3 mins read

Canada Economics Weekly

Case for July hike less compelling

There was plenty for the Bank of Canada to digest this week, with the data showing that core inflation fell in May even as GDP growth picked up strongly again. The resilience of economic activity...

30th June 2023 · 7 mins read

Canada Economics Update

Bank’s survey results unlikely to prevent another hike

The Bank of Canada’s quarterly business and consumer surveys showed a broad decline in inflation expectations and are consistent with a renewed slowdown in GDP growth. The Bank could use those...

30th June 2023 · 3 mins read

Asset Allocation Update

Making sense of asset flows and the yen

Reconciling the slide in Japan’s currency with big flows into its stock market from abroad and a perception that the appeal of foreign bonds to Japanese investors has waned in response to high hedging...

30th June 2023 · 4 mins read

US Economics Weekly

Consumption and core inflation losing momentum

The apparent weakness of consumption growth and slowdown in core inflation in the second quarter leave us a bit more confident in our view that the Fed’s next rate hike will prove to be the last.

30th June 2023 · 10 mins read

UK Economics Weekly

BoE’s dovish tone is coming back to haunt it

The hawkish comments made by the Bank of England Governor, Andrew Bailey, at this week’s ECB annual Sintra gathering marks the latest step by the Bank to get on the front foot in its fight against...

30th June 2023 · 5 mins read