US Commercial Property Update RICS Commercial Market Survey (Q3) The Q3 RICS survey indicated occupier and investment sentiment fell further in Q3, with the latter reflected in weak investment volumes throughout the summer months. But tight credit conditions and a... 26th October 2023 · 5 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update RICS Commercial Property Market Survey (Q3 2023) Having started the year on a somewhat promising footing, all-property occupier demand has weakened since and fell further in Q3. The demand balances for offices and retail remained significantly... 26th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank’s tightening cycle likely to be over Norges Bank is almost certain to leave its policy rate unchanged at 4.25% next week. And we suspect that, given September’s weak inflation data, it will also soften its language about implementing one... 26th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update On the relative appeal of US corporate bonds and equities Although US high-yield (HY) corporate bonds are more attractively valued than at any time since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), we doubt they will outperform US equities over the next couple of... 26th October 2023 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Update Raising our mortgage rate forecasts Our new higher forecasts for US Treasury yields mean that mortgage rates won’t fall as quickly as we previously predicted. While we still expect mortgage rates to decline they are unlikely to fall... 26th October 2023 · 3 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Wage growth still on firm downward trend After the 336,000 jump in non-farm payrolls in September, we expect a more modest 200,000 increase in October. Moreover, despite some strength in labour demand, wage growth continues to ease. 26th October 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update NCREIF Property Index (Q3 2023) The -1.4% quarterly return in Q3 meant that there have now been four consecutive negative quarters for all-property total returns. That figure was dragged down by a 5% q/q fall in office values as all... 26th October 2023 · 3 mins read
BoE Watch A long time on the top of the mountain We think the Bank of England will leave interest rates unchanged at 5.25% for the second policy meeting in a row on Thursday 2nd November, that rates will stay at their peak for a bit longer than most... 26th October 2023 · 6 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) Our Canada Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Strong immigration is unlikely to be enough to prevent a mild recession, with GDP contracting... 25th October 2023 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank’s next move likely to be a rate cut Although the Bank of Canada maintained its tightening bias today, the rest of its communications suggest that the Bank is growing more confident it has done enough to eventually get inflation back to... 25th October 2023 · 3 mins read
US Fed Watch Still on course for rate cuts next year We don’t expect a significant change in tone from the Fed next week, with rates on hold but officials keeping the option of further tightening on the table. That said, the surge in long-term Treasury... 25th October 2023 · 8 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response New Home Sales (Sep. 2023) Extraordinarily limited supply in the existing homes market continued to drive buyers to new homes in September. The 12.4% m/m rise in new home sales in September took them to 759,000 annualised... 25th October 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Effectiveness of Mortgage Guarantee varies by region The proposed extension to the Mortgage Guarantee Scheme could prove a good counter-cyclical policy in areas where house prices are relatively low. But the scheme has far less impact in London and the... 25th October 2023 · 3 mins read
