Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (Jan. 2025) 20th February 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Fed FOMC Minutes (Jan 28th-29th) The minutes of the Fed’s late-January policy meeting underline that, having cut rates by a cumulative 100bp, officials are in no hurry to resume loosening monetary policy, even though most still... 19th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Is the BoC right to ignore CPI-trim and CPI-median? The Bank of Canada has downplayed the recent stronger monthly increases in its preferred CPI-trim and CPI-median core measures, but we are not convinced by the Bank’s claim that these measures are... 19th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We think moves in DM yields may diverge before long Although long-term government bond yields in developed markets (DM) have moved in tandem with those of US Treasuries in recent months, we think they will diverge in the coming months. 19th February 2025 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Housing Starts (Jan. 2025) The decline in housing starts in January is not a major concern, as it comes after a surge in starts in December and appears partly driven by the unseasonably harsh weather. Encouragingly, permit... 19th February 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Jan. 2025) CPI inflation took another step up from 2.5% in December to 3.0% in January (consensus, BoE, CE 2.8%) and will probably rise to around 3.5% in the second half of this year. We doubt this will prevent... 19th February 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ to cut further than most expect Having handed down a third consecutive 50bp rate cut at its meeting today, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is likely to slow the pace of easing going forward. That said, we still think there’s a... 19th February 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Wage Price Index (Q4 2024) 19th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (Feb. 2025) The plunge in the sales-to-new listings ratio in January is a downside risk to our view that house prices will recover this year, particularly amid anecdotal evidence that US tariff threats are... 18th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Event Global Drop-In: Long Run Outlook – The global economic order post-Trump 1741705200 Imagine a world after Donald Trump. The returned president’s rapidly unfolding policy agenda will have bearing on the US and global economies in the near-term.
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Feb. 2025) The economy continues to do well with GDP growing strongly and employment growth solid. We are concerned, however, that the Trump administration’s policies will weigh on GDP growth over the course of... 18th February 2025 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack US Housing Market Chart Pack (Feb. 25) We think the window for further Fed interest rate cuts has closed, so mortgage rates should remain near their current 7% level this year, before a little more relief arrives in 2026. There will still... 18th February 2025 · 1 min read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Jan. 2025) The GST holiday meant that headline inflation remained below the 2% target in January, but there is clear evidence that underlying inflation pressures are building. Given the tariff threat hanging... 18th February 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Dec. 2024) While there was a small improvement in labour market activity in December and January, employment growth remains subdued as the prospect of higher business taxes and a higher minimum wage in April is... 18th February 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA signals a slow pace of policy normalisation When the Reserve Bank of Australia handed down its inaugural 25bp cut today, it indicated that any further withdrawal of monetary restriction would be limited, given residual inflationary pressures... 18th February 2025 · 3 mins read
