US Rapid Response Fed Minutes (Sept 17-18) The minutes of the mid-September FOMC meeting reveal that support among Fed officials for kicking off the loosening cycle with a bigger 50bp rate cut was a little weaker than the lone dissent on the... 9th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Event Europe Drop-In: What will follow another ECB rate cut? 1729173600 Given the amount of signalling by Governing Council officials, it would be surprising if the ECB didn’t cut rates at its October meeting.
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Oct. 2024) We think the Chancellor will raise taxes in line with the planned £16bn (0.6% of GDP) a year increase in public spending at the Budget on 30th October. The main influence of this will just be a... 9th October 2024 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Tourism industry still struggling Despite the surge in foreign visitors, Japan’s tourism industry is still struggling as domestic tourists have slashed holiday spending in the face of plunging real incomes. 9th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada International Trade (Aug. 2024) Despite the trade deficit widening in August, developments earlier in the quarter means that net trade looks set to support GDP growth in the third quarter. With most of that positive contribution... 8th October 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response International Trade (Aug. 2024) The trade deficit narrowed to $70.4bn in August, from $78.9bn, as exports grew by 2% m/m and imports declined by 0.9% m/m. Exports, especially in real terms, were stronger than the advance goods data... 8th October 2024 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Central banks will shrug off oil price risks With the price of crude oil continuing to climb higher, we could soon see a resurgence in fuel inflation in both Australia and New Zealand. However, if we’re right that any pickup in oil prices will... 8th October 2024 · 4 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Oct. 2024) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Wage growth is starting to outpace inflation and with real incomes rising, the rebound in consumer... 8th October 2024 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Is the labour market really that strong? The unexpectedly strong 254,000 gain in payroll employment in September was a welcome surprise, but the deterioration in most other labour market indicators suggests this was a one-off rather than the... 7th October 2024 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update What could a Trump win mean for commercial real estate? On the back of client questions, we have put together this short primer on the potential impact of a second Trump term on commercial real estate markets, both in the US and elsewhere. The key takeaway... 7th October 2024 · 4 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Labour Cash Earnings (August 24) Base pay rose the most since 1992 in August and we think it will continue to surge in the coming months. According to today’s preliminary estimate, labour cash earnings rose by 3.0 y/y in August. That... 7th October 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response Halifax House Prices (Sep. 2024) The third consecutive monthly rise in the Halifax house price index in September provides further evidence that the falls in mortgage rates are supporting demand and pushing up house prices. 7th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Introducing our House Price Leading Index Our new House Price Leading Index combines several leading indicators that capture the balance of supply and demand in Australia’s housing market and suggests that house price growth will continue to... 7th October 2024 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing still struggling Activity in the housing market and broader economy have been struggling for momentum and give little indication that excess supply is dissipating, suggesting that there is still a strong case for a... 4th October 2024 · 6 mins read
