US Economics Weekly Fed to adopt more measured pace of rate cuts September’s blockbuster employment report and the rebound in the October ISM services index mean that any hopes of another 50bp rate cut are long gone. We continue to expect the Fed to take a more... 4th October 2024 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Oil prices would need to jump further to influence BoE While the Bank of England is watching the developments in the Middle East “very closely”, Governor Andrew Bailey said that the Bank could start cutting interest rates more aggressively if the good... 4th October 2024 · 7 mins read
Event UK Drop-In: Budget reaction – Rachel Reeves’ statement and the UK economic and market consequences 1730300400 After months of speculation, investors will find out how the UK Chancellor plans to balance tax, spending and investment decisions as the new government tries to
Event UK Drop-In: Budget preview – What to expect from Rachel Reeves’ big day 1729087200 This could be a Budget statement that defines the UK economy’s performance through the rest of this decade.
US Rapid Response Employment Report (Sep.) Looking at the labour market strength evident in September’s Employment Report, the real debate at the Fed should be about whether to loosen monetary policy at all. Any hopes of a 50bp cut are long... 4th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Changes to housing tax breaks could hit rental supply The Australian government is reportedly considering clamping down on tax breaks for property investors. If the government did indeed reduce and/or phase out existing tax concessions, it would make the... 4th October 2024 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Government won’t prevent further rate hikes The Q3 Tankan was strong across the board and strengthens the case for another rate hike. While the political noise coming out of Tokyo suggests that the BoJ will keep policy unchanged at its meeting... 4th October 2024 · 5 mins read
US Economics Update Are the upside risks to core inflation mounting? We continue to believe that core PCE inflation will return to the 2%target on a sustained basis early next year, as labour market conditions gradually ease. Up until recently we would also have argued... 3rd October 2024 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Mall divergence to persist as luxury boosts top-tier assets While we have been talking up the prospects for retail, malls remain the underperforming subsector in our forecasts. But that covers a wide range of likely performance. Indeed, as luxury retailers... 3rd October 2024 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response ISM Services (Sep) The surge in the ISM services index to a 17-month high of 54.9 in September, from 51.5, is a good reminder that the contrasting weakness in manufacturing is not a systemic threat to the modern... 3rd October 2024 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Off-budget boost to spending won’t last The federal budget foresees an unusually large jump in cash outflows that don’t feed into the underlying cash balance in 2024/25. However, the actual boost to activity will be much smaller than the... 3rd October 2024 · 4 mins read
Event Drop-In: The global macro and markets outlook – What you need to know 1728396000 The euro-zone has stalled, the US labour market is cooling and China has only belatedly announced stimulus measures.
US Housing Market Rapid Response Mortgage Applications (Sep. 2024) The impact of lower mortgage rates was finally evident in mortgage applications in September, with applications for home purchase rebounding to a three-month high. With mortgage rates falling to... 2nd October 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Trump tariffs may not be so bad for the UK One way the US election could influence the UK economy would be if Donald Trump won and delivered on his pledge to put a 10% tariff on UK exports being sent to the US. We suspect the impact on UK... 2nd October 2024 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ will deliver a 50bp cut next Wednesday We expect the RBNZ to move its easing cycle up a gear and cut the Official Cash Rate by 50bp at its meeting next week. What’s more, given the Bank’s tendency to loosen policy aggressively, we think... 2nd October 2024 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs signal marked slowdown in global industry In addition to indicating that goods price pressures eased in September, the latest batch of manufacturing PMIs suggest that global industry slowed sharply towards the end of Q3. But with interest... 1st October 2024 · 2 mins read
