Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA will only cut rates in first half of next year The RBA didn’t discuss a rate hike at today’s meeting for the first time since March but reiterated its pledge that it won’t cut interest rates “in the near-term”. While the risks are starting to tilt... 24th September 2024 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Incoming PM unlikely to veto further rate hikes The government tried to prevent the Bank of Japan from hiking interest rates in 2000 but that attempt was unsuccessful and the government has respected the Bank’s independence ever since. Renewed... 24th September 2024 · 5 mins read
US Economic Outlook Economy to benefit from lower interest rates With inflation normalising due to improving supply, the Fed is in the fortuitous position of being able to lower interest rates even though economic growth remains solid and the unemployment rate is... 23rd September 2024 · 15 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs point to slower growth and inflation The latest flash PMIs suggest that GDP growth slowed in advanced economies at the end of Q3, particularly in the euro-zone. Meanwhile, weaker activity seems to be weighing on services price pressures... 23rd September 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Sep. 2024) The fall in September’s composite flash PMI is probably not a sign that the economy is on the cusp of another downturn, but instead is further evidence that real GDP growth has slowed towards a more... 23rd September 2024 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Office Metros Outlook Houston rockets to the top of the office rankings Offices are still in for a tough few years, with markets like San Francisco, LA and Seattle likely to come out of the downturn with values down 55% or more from their 2019 peaks. However, there are... 20th September 2024 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed opts for a 50 despite strong GDP growth The Fed’s decision to start its rate cutting cycle with a bang was not a big surprise after the seemingly coordinated media articles late last week warning that the 25bp vs 50bp debate was closer than... 20th September 2024 · 6 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Retail Sales (Jul. 2024) The rebound in retail sales volumes in July will be welcome news to the Bank of Canada, which has been concerned about the downside risks to the economy. With the outlook for sales positive, there is... 20th September 2024 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly The BoE won’t diverge from the Fed for long It makes sense to us that the Bank of England will continue to cut interest rates gradually as it has yet to follow the Fed by shifting from worrying less about inflation and worrying more about weak... 20th September 2024 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan will hike rates once more in December The Bank of Japan today signalled that it’s in no rush to tighten monetary policy any further and we’re pushing back our forecast for a final rate hike to 0.5% from October to December. 20th September 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Aug. 2024) August’s public finances figures continued the recent run of bad news on the fiscal position, with public borrowing on track to overshoot the OBR’s 2024/25 forecast of £87.2bn by £6.2bn. And although... 20th September 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Aug. 2024) The unexpected large rise in retail sales volumes in August came on the back of a 0.7% m/m increase in July (revised up from 0.5% m/m) and lends some support to our view that the recent stagnation in... 20th September 2024 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Will Japan have its first female prime minister? Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi is seen as the most suitable candidate for Prime Minister, though the race remains wide open. While she has opposed any policy tightening by the Bank of Japan... 20th September 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Tight labour market will delay interest rate relief The August labour force release provided little justification for the RBA to renege on its pledge to keep interest rates unchanged at least until the end of the year. Not only is employment growth on... 20th September 2024 · 4 mins read
